Market Finding Support – Expect Nervous Trading – Speed Bump Ahead
POSTED BY PETE STOLCERS ON MARCH 6
Buyers are starting to gain confidence and the price action yesterday was constructive. Stocks shot higher from the open and the dips were brief and small. The market closed on a strong note and the S&P 500 is up 10 points before the open. I still expect volatility this week.
The jobs report on Friday will be critical because it will reveal wage increases. I believe they will settle down and that much of the wage spike was related to tax cut bonuses/raises.
ISM services came in strong yesterday. Initial jobless claims have been dropping for weeks and the ADP report tomorrow will be solid. I’m expecting to see close to 200,000 jobs created in the private sector during the month of February.
Trump’s tone on tariffs seems to be softening. He might exclude Mexico and Canada if NAFTA is renegotiated.
Given the recent volatility I don’t believe we’re out of the woods. The market will start to settle in somewhere around this level in the next month. The FOMC meeting on March 31 will be critical. Most analysts are expecting a rate hike.
Swing traders should remain on the sidelines. As the volatility subsides I will look for an entry point. The 100-day moving average has been able to hold and I might consider getting back in if we test it.
Day traders should not trust the opening rally. The market has run hard the last two days and I believe the downside will be tested early. Let the bid establish itself and use the first hour range as your guide. Support is at SPY $270 and resistance is at $275.
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