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New All-time Market High – Make Sure It Holds Before Buying
The market floated higher into year-end on light volume and that is typical for the last week of trading. We know that tiny bodied candles on light volume are as sign of resistance. We also know that when the “dogs start barking” (laggards bounce) the market is searching for leadership and that we are due for a pullback. Overseas markets were up and that is providing a nice springboard this morning. The S&P 500 will make a new all-time high on the open today.
Stock valuations have not been this high since the tech bubble of 2000 and the Fed is preparing to tighten. Yesterday the TLT (US 20-Year Treasuries) closed below the 200-day MA and it is trading lower this morning. This will be a headwind for tech stocks and a close below $141 would signal higher rates.
Omnicron is running its course and the self-quarantine time has been reduced from 10 days to 5 days. Patients are 70% less likely to be hospitalized from it and once you’ve had Omnicron, your body’s immune system protects you against the Delta variant. I’m not afraid I will die from Omnicron. Like most people, I just don’t want to get sick and it is much more contagious than the original virus. I believe Omnicron will have an economic impact on Q4 earnings.
Swing traders, your bullish put spreads from a couple of weeks ago are melting away. Manage those trades and buy the spreads back in for pennies. I believe we will see a market dip in the next week or two and you will have a chance to reload. An SPY drop to the 50-day MA would be a level to initiate new bullish put spreads. Don’t go crazy with them at that level. The market could be there very briefly (that is why we want to get a few trades off) or it could drop to the 100-day MA. If we get down to the 100-day you want to manage the bullish put spreads you have on and you want to wait for that support to be confirmed. When the market bounces off of the 100-day MA you can add aggressively to your bullish put spreads. I believe that buyers will remain engaged as earnings season approaches in a few weeks and that will keep longer term support levels intact.
Day traders should not chase the opening gap up today. Gaps up to a new high have been faded in the last year. We need to be patient. Your time spent watching the market during the first 30-45 minutes will provide important information. 1OP will open higher and I suggest waiting to see what the market does during the first bearish cycle. If the bearish cycle runs its course and SPY holds steady, you can buy on the notion that the next bullish 1OP cross will result in a new high. If the market pulls back during the first bearish cycle (most likely scenario), wait for market support. I believe that the bid will be tested early and that we will have a nice entry for longs after an hour of trading. Consecutive stacked red candles with little to no overlap would signal a gap reversal and you will need to wait much longer before buying. I have not seen signs of heavy selling in the last week and until I do, I will favor day trading from the long side.
Support is at $475 and $477.30 and resistance is at the all-time high.
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