Daily Commentary: January 20, 2021

Jeremy Engelbrecht1Option Commentary

Market Rally Is Fine As Long As We DON’T See This Pattern

Posted by Pete Stolcers on January 20

There isn’t any substantial overnight news to report. The SPY tested support at $377 during the last week and buyers are still engaged. As I’ve been mentioning in my comments we are likely to see an inauguration rally as we get one step closer to the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill proposed by Biden. Tech earnings are off to a nice start after NFLX beat estimates. The S&P 500 looks poised to challenge the all-time high this week.

The S&P 500 is in a gradually sloping upward channel and these can continue for an extended period of time. A melt up through the upper end of the channel would signify a buying climax and we need to carefully watch for that. Selling on the backside is fast and furious after these mel-ups especially when bullish sentiment is so high. As long as the market stays in the channel conditions will be stable.

Future Treasury Secretary Janet Yellin wants to go “big” with stimulus. She wants to see if there is an appetite for fifty-year bonds. Politicians don’t solve problems; they kick the can down the road. With interest rates near historic lows I have been wondering why we aren’t issuing long-term bonds. The current duration for our debt is four years and if we get into a credit crisis interest rates will jump and rolling that debt over will become extremely expensive. This is the ultimate “punt”. Janet Yelin favors raising corporate taxes and she mentioned this yesterday. This would be market unfriendly and hopefully she will keep this rhetoric to a minimum until the economy rebounds.

Earnings season has started and buyers will be engaged as tech giants prepare to announce. Tech has been largely unscathed by the virus and in many cases these companies have benefited from it. Tech earnings should be strong, but valuations are extremely stretched at a P/E of 40.

Swing traders should generate income by selling out of the money bullish put spreads on strong stocks. We are focusing on companies that have a tendency to rally into the earnings announcement and that will report in two weeks. These bullish put spreads are below technical support and they will expire in less than three weeks. Time premium decay is continually working in our favor and this is a way for us to participate in the rally and to do it from a safe distance. I believe that the market will be stable through January. If I see a blow-off rally I will know that a market drop is coming and we will head to the sidelines and wait for a better entry point.

Day traders should not chase the opening gap higher. Patiently wait for a market dip or a pause. This will allow you to identify relative strength and you will be able to gauge market support. I am trading from the long side and I believe we could challenge the all-time high this week.

Support is at SPY $377 and resistances at the all-time high.

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