Daily Commentary: September 11, 2020

Jeremy Engelbrecht1Option Commentary

Market Price Action Is Bearish – More Selling Ahead – WE WILL NEVER FORGET

Posted by Pete Stolcers on September 11

Yesterday we got an important piece of technical information. The market tried to add to gains from Wednesday’s bounce and the selling pressure regained its momentum Thursday. Stocks closed on the low of the day and support at SPY $333 was tested easily. This price action tells us that the selling pressure is heavy and that we can expect the low from this week to be violated. Swing traders with a longer term horizon should be in cash and day traders should prepare for shorting opportunities.

Typically, the first wave of selling after a buying climax is heavy. Bullish speculators are flushed out and sell programs kick in. This move is usually shallow and brief because Asset Managers who are under allocated quickly scoop shares. If the appetite for stocks was strong at this level, we would have seen a gradual tick higher for the next week. That did not happen and profit takers are aggressively reducing risk.

Yesterday the market blew through the low from Wednesday and it easily tested the low of the week. The selling pressure was persistent and we are likely to reverse the early gap higher this morning.

There hasn’t been much news overnight, but a last-minute attempt at a stimulus bill was shot down yesterday. A deal before the election is unlikely and that means that small businesses will have to lay off workers.

Stocks are rich at a P/E of 23. The “V” bottom recovery has been squashed by the second wave of the Coronavirus and much of the country remains in Phase 3. This is prompting investors to take profits ahead of the election.

Swing traders with a longer-term perspective need to remain sidelined. On a shorter-term swing basis, we are taking profits on our out of the money bullish put spreads this morning. I did not like the price action yesterday and it’s obvious that the selling pressure is heavy. Even on a shorter-term basis (inside of two weeks) I believe that cash is king. The strength of this rally has been incredible and traders have to be extremely nimble on the short side. The best swing trading opportunity will come on the long side and I suggest waiting patiently for support.

Day traders will have opportunities on the short side. Don’t trust this opening bounce higher. I don’t believe we will see a decent rally until the downside is tested today. After the first hour of trading I will be able to gauge the selling pressure. I believe that we could take out SPY $333 today. If that happens we will see selling pressure into the close. If stocks make a new low after two hours of trading and if the selling pressure is heavy I will consider holding some short positions over the weekend. Be careful trading bounces and set passive targets. I hope that we don’t sell off today and that we get a patriotic 9/11 rally. The immediate selling after the bounce Wednesday tells me that we have more work to do on the downside.


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