Closing Recap

Thursday, February 24, 2022

Equity Market Recap

·     Stunning rebound! Absolutely stunning turn of events following a massive reversal off lows for stocks, soaring intraday despite tumbling overnight after Russia invaded Ukraine. The S&P opened down nearly 2% below 4,200 for the first time since June but was able to snap its 4-day losing streak (more than 125-point bounce low to high) while the Nasdaq jumped nearly 6% from its intraday low to its high (900-point swing low to high), snapping its own 5-day losing streak in the process. The index did enter a bear market in the morning as it went below 13,000 for the first time since last March (low around 12,600) and more than 20% off its intraday record high above 16,000. Meanwhile, gold lost nearly $100/oz during the day and bond yields pared losses as safe-haven plays lost their luster given the sharp spike in equities. Additionally, Brent and WTI oil prices both topped $100/barrel for the first time since 2014 before retreating after President Joe Biden said the United States would release additional oil from its strategic reserves if necessary. Biden said that U.S. forces will not fight in Ukraine but that additional forces would be authorized to go to Germany. Sanctions cited involved Russian banks and technology imports. Just a wild and volatile day overall, with massive swings in stocks, bond markets, gold, and oil prices – markets opened with massive fear only to have the VIX index “red” late day.

·     Stock & Sector movers: Markets surge intraday to Snap its losing streak, reversing overnight losses on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; RSX Russia ETF, YNDX plunge after news, oil tops $100/barrel before paring rise; MRNA among S&P leaders; EDIT sinks to lowest level since June 2017 before bouncing to green with NTLA also rising after earnings in biotech; reopen names mixed after earnings – LYV soars on a beat with robust demand, SIX PLNT SEAS rise after beats; NCLH 52-week lows on its revenue miss, VAC slides on weak guidance, BKNG tumbles on comments of an uneven bounce back due to pandemic, geopolitical concerns; PWR jumps, BABA 5-year lows on slowest-ever increase in quarterly revenue since going public in 2014, NTAP rolls on weak EPS forecast, DISCA PZZA slip among other notable post-earnings movers; financials underperform with JPM C CMA ZION SBNY MTB among worst S&P decliners.

Economic Data:

·     Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 232K from 249K in prior week and vs. est. 235K; the 4-week moving average fell to 236,250 from 243,500 prior week; continued claims fell to 1.476M from 1.588M prior week (est. 1.58M) and U.S. insured Unemployment Rate unchanged at 1.1%

·     U in-line with ests and vs. prior 6.9% reading; final sales +2.0% vs. est. 1.9%; Q4 business investment +3.1% vs. est. +2.0%; Q4 consumer spending +3.1% vs. est. +3.3%; Q4 exports +23.6% (prior +24.5 pct), imports +17.6% pct (prior +17.7%); inflation data shows Q4-P GDP deflator +7.2% vs. est. +6.9% and PCE index +6.3% vs. est. 6.4%; PCE Core +5% vs. est. 4.9%

Commodities

·     A wild day for oil prices as WTI crude surged by more than 9% at one point to $100.54, which marked the first $100-plus price since 2014 as news of Russia’s attack on Ukraine exacerbated concerns about disruptions to global energy supply. However, as stocks rallied off lows to turn positive (more than 125-point recovery for the S&P off lows and a 700-point swing for the Nasdaq off lows), oil prices pared gains as WTI crude rose 0.8% to $92.81 per barrel. U.S. President Joe Biden announced he would impose “severe sanctions” on Russia as Vladimir Putin ordered a military assault on Ukraine. Note commodity prices in general rose as Russia’s biggest exports include oil, coal, wheat, iron, gold, platinum, copper, and diamonds. CNBC notes Russia is largest exporter of Wheat, Ukraine is 20% of global corn exports and Russia major supplier of natural gas to Europe (CNBC commentator noted yesterday is roughly 80%). Gold prices fall 1% to $1,890 late day after hitting pre-market highs above $1,976 an ounce (gold had settled at $1,926.30 an ounce earlier). Brent rises $2.24 or 2.31% to settle at $99.08 per barrel

Currencies & Treasuries

·     The U.S. dollar hit nearly 2-year highs as the Russian Rouble touched record lows on the Russia launched invasion of Ukraine initially – but the dollar pared gains after U.S. President Joe Biden announced new sanctions against Russia, including banks. Investors also piled into U.S. government debt, pushing Treasury yields sharply lower after Russia invaded Ukraine in the biggest attack by one country against another in Europe since World War Two. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes hit lows around 1.85% this morning- had been on track for its biggest daily drop since late November, but yields rebounded as stocks soared (10-yr to 1.96%). Bitcoin and other crypto assets big swing higher with broader stocks (Bitcoin above $39K after 35K earlier)

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Retailers; UAA announces a $500M share buyback; Macy’s (M) upgraded to neutral from sell at Citigroup after stock this week fell below its $25 target price, saying in note that risk/reward for the department store owner now appears to be balanced; BABA Q3 revenue rose about 10% to 242.6B yuan from 246.37B yuan y/y, its slowest-ever increase in quarterly revenue since going public in 2014; MAT upgraded from Hold to Buy at Stifel as reflects increasing confidence around the company’s ability to meet or exceed its intermediate-term goals; BIRD FY4Q revenue and adjusted EBITDA results exceeded estimates; online home furnisher Wayfair (W) slides after earning and said sees Q1 gross revs trending down in low teens; BBWI EPS and Sales in line with Feb guide but FY’22 EPS a little light and CEO is stepping down for health reasons; RCII slides on EPS miss, weak guidance as headwinds on consumer discretionary income from elevated rates of inflation and the wind down of government pandemic financial relief weigh and revs impacted ; mattress retailer SNBR big miss and falling despite the recent TPX move lower as company blamed not be able to ship given supply chain and said end market demand remains strong

·     Restaurants & Consumer Staples; KDP earnings beat driven by tax and other op income, sales beat (good) but Coffee was light and guidance reaffirmed; ABEV net income declined to 3.7 billion reais, equivalent to $738.5 million, from BRL6.9 billion a year earlier as costs jumped; NDLS mixed as 4Q21 results (adj. EBITDA and SSS miss), and 1Q22 guidance (Omicron and commodities), but positive commentary on recent sales trends; PZZA slides as posts Q4 EPS and revs beat as comp sales up 11.1% in North America and 2.4% Internationally but no 2022 outlook

·     Casinos, Gaming, Lodging & Leisure sector; theme parks active after earnings results from both SIX and SEAS Q4 EPS loss (-$0.02) vs. est. loss (-$0.08); Q4 revs $317M vs. est. $268.07M; Q4 attendance at company’s parks was approximately 98% compared to comparable fiscal period in 2019; total guest spending per capita in q4 2021 increased 32% compared to q4 2019; busy day of earnings in gaming with BALY, CHDN, cruise lines with NCLH

Energy

·     Energy stock movers; were among top performing sector initially given the spike in WTI crude to around $100 per barrel given conflict in Ukraine Russia invades – but many of the names slipped on the open in a bout of profit taking; earnings also in focus with RLTR 4Q beat, 2022 outlook below, CPE Q4 mixed and 2022 guide slightly weaker than expected, though solid ops program; CDEV Q21 mixed and 2022 guide in line; solid initial shareholder return plan; CTRA Q4 results and 2022 guidance slightly weaker; OXY adj EPS $1.48 vs est. $1.10 on revenue $7.91B vs est. $7.32B, total avg global production 1,189 MBoed exceeded midpoint of guidance by 49 MBoed

·     Utilities & Solar; SJI entered an agreement to be acquired by the Infrastructure Investments Fund, a private vehicle, in a deal with an enterprise value of about $8.1 billion. Under the term of the deal, IIF will pay $36 for each SJI share owned; defensive utility stocks were among the early top gainers in the S&P in a flight for yield

Financials

·     Insurance; LMND slips after weaker Q1 and full-year guidance, as well as missing Q4 earnings consensus estimate as guided Q1 revs of $41M-$43M vs. consensus of $44.0M and Q4 adjusted EBITDA loss of $51.2M vs. loss of $51.3M in Q3; bank stocks along with insurance stocks broadly lower on macro fears and decline in Treasury yields as Russia invades Ukraine – banks/insurers benefit from higher yields as higher rates boost their profitability

·     Bitcoin; FinTech & Payments; SQ earnings after the close tonight; Bitcoin leveraged names MSTR, RIOT, MARA, COIN among others tumble along with price of crypto as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin all fall with riskier assets on geopolitical market concerns in Ukraine

Healthcare

·     Biotech & Pharma movers; ORPH suffers regulatory setback for EU marketing application of arimoclomol; MNKD shares slide as the U.S. FDA extends deadline for completing review of application for new drug until May; MRNA beat Q4 EPS and revs as its COVID-19 vaccine brought in nearly $7 billion in product sales during the final three months of the year

·     MedTech Equipment; OSUR 4Q21 came in slightly above the pre-announcement, with 4Q21 revenues of $63.6mn and with InteliSwab contributing ~$14mn; GH reported 4Q21 revenue of $108.1mn, above consensus of $98.6mn and clinical test volumes of 25.6k came in above Citi 24.6k estimate and Biopharma test volumes of 6.6k outpaced 5.6k estimate as well; NUVA 4Q21 sales beat, but EPS missed by a wide margin due to the tax impact of FX-related unrealized losses and issued a wide range for 2022 sales and EPS guidance that met consensus at the upper-end; PODD solid 4Q results, as sales rose 26% cc and topped consensus by $8.4M driven entirely by the non-core Drug Delivery segment, however

·     Healthcare Services; ONEM reported 4Q:21 and full-year results. 4Q:21 revenue and membership were both ahead of consensus, but 4Q:21 adjusted EBITDA was below; EVH topped estimates and consensus for 4Q:21 revenue and EBITDA, and the guide for 2022 and 1Q:22 was also well ahead of consensus for both revenue and EBITDA

Industrials & Materials

·     Aerospace & Defense; defense stocks such as LHX, RTX, GD, NOC, LMT among biggest winners amid the increased conflict in Ukraine with Russia; in Transports, Industrial & Machinery; HTZ slides as restructuring costs outweigh travel rebound – reported a qtrly loss of (-$1.52) vs. expected profit while Ebitda beat, revs in-line

·     Metals & Materials; shares of ATI, CRS, HWM Jet-Engine makers look for titanium supplies outside Russia according to Bloomberg (Russia is a major source of metal for motors); aluminum names AA, CENX active as well as platinum names SPPP, PLL, on Russia output concerns – among top exporters in several commodity spaces; gold miners rise early in flight to safety with gold prices jumping but pare gains.

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Internet; EBAY falls after in-line Q4 revs of $2.61B, while qtrly gross merchandise value (GMV) was down 10% y/y to $20.7B and guides Q1 revs $2.43B-$2.48B missing the $2.62B estimate; in online travel, BKNG 4Q21 came in better than feared as bookings were in line with consensus, revenue came in 5% better, and GAAP EPS of $14.94 compares to consensus of $13.30 and recent February bookings are above 2019 levels but management conceded that there are a lot of uncertainties about how linear the recovery is going to be

·     Hardware, Software movers; BAND non-GAAP EPS of $0.09 (consensus ($0.13)) on revenue of $126.1M, up 12% y/y (consensus $118.2M), and CPaaS revenue of $101.0M, up 3% y/y (consensus $97.1M). Guidance was below expectations; NET announced an agreement to acquire privately-held Area 1 Security for $162M (40%-50% paid in Class A shares; balance in cash; MAPS reported 4Q sales that were 6% ahead of FactSet consensus and set a more constructive tone compared as set the high end of CY22 sales guidance ($255-265Mn) 3% ahead of consensus; PROG reported strong 4Q gross merchandise value (GMV) +18.3% vs. Bofa +16.4%, but guidance was well-below views; FIVN, DOCS among other earnings’ NTAP shares fall as gross margin outlook of 64.0%, down from 67.3% a year ago pressures the stock in the near term.

·     Media & Telecom movers; DISCA posted earnings miss while added 2 mln subs last quarter with total subs about 22mln (est. 22.6M) while sales beat; DISH Q4 profit in-line with ests as revs dip slightly, said Q4 Pay-TV subs fell about -273K and retail wireless net subs fell about -245K; LYV Q4 revs top expectations; in towers, AMT posts slight beat to Q4 PS, ebitda and revenues; FUBO reported Q4 results with better-than-expected subscriber growth, ending the quarter with 1.13m total paid subs ex. acquisitions but guided to Q1 paid subs of 1.028-1.033m, a decrease of ~100k subs sequentially; GCI forecast revenue for 2022 of $3.07B-$3.16B, implying a 1.5%-4.3% decline from its 2021 revenue, and said it won’t see “sustained revenue growth” until 2024