Closing Recap

Tuesday, May 05, 2020

Equity Market Recap

·     U.S. stocks extended their late day rally from Monday, boosted by increasingly optimistic views about the re-opening of the U.S. economy as more than half the states have already begun their plans to remove the “stay-at-home” lockdowns. Oil prices were among the biggest beneficiaries with WTI crude jump 20% for its 5^th straight daily advance on hopes for demand to return with more travel. Technology and healthcare were also standout winners on a day that saw all eleven S&P sectors advance ahead of a busy week of earnings and key economic data. A New York Times report that President Trump is eyeing new tax cuts in the next stimulus package also helped propel stocks to highs late day as the Nasdaq Composite traded above the 8,900 level before paring gains (which marked being down less than 1% YTD). Investors once again looked past another round of dismal economic data as U.S. business activity fell to new record lows in April as data firm IHS Markit said last week its flash U.S. Composite Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, tumbled to a reading of 27.0 last month. Meanwhile, the ISM Non-Manufacturing for April fell to 41.8 from prior month reading of 52.5, but slightly above estimates of 38 as the index fell to the lowest level since 2009. The data provides a sobering reminder of the impact from the coronavirus mandated business closures, which is expected yet again to show the difficulty in the jobs market later this week. The U.S. trade deficit widened in March, with exports plunging by a record and imports falling the most in 11 years. While stocks have risen sharply from their March lows (more than 25%), the impact of the coronavirus has crushed global economies, which may be evident in Disney earnings tonight after the close as theme parks, casinos, and several retailers remain closed in several parts of the country. Markets did slide in the final hour of trading after mixed comments from the Fed’s Clarida who spoke positively about Q3 GDP, but did note the rising unemployment, and that it will take some time for businesses to reopen and people to return to work.

Economic Data

·     ISM Non-Manufacturing for April fell to 41.8 from prior month reading of 52.5, but slightly above estimates of 38 as the index fell to the lowest level since 2009; business activity fell to 26.0 vs 48.0 prior month (the lowest on record while new orders fell to a record low 32.9 vs 52.9 and the employment index fell to 30.0 vs 47.0

·     U.S. trade deficit widened in March, with exports plunging by a record and imports falling the most in 11 years as the pandemic stymied trade. The overall gap in goods and services trade increased to $44.4 billion from a revised $39.8 billion in February (vs. est. $44.2B). Imports fell 6.2% in March to $232.16b from $247.56b in February and exports fell 9.6% in March to $187.75b from $207.75b in February.

·     US IHS Markit April final services PMI at 26.7 (vs flash 27.0) while services sector final PMI for April at 26.7 vs flash reading 27.0 and final march 39.8; said composite PMI shows private-sector business activity shrank at sharpest pace in survey history going back to October 2009; final US composite new orders index for April at 26.4 vs flash reading 27.2 and final March 40.9

·     American households added $155 billion of debt in the first quarter and overall debt levels rose to a new record at $14.30 trillion, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said on Tuesday. Mortgage balances rose by $156 billion from the fourth quarter to $9.71 trillion. But access to credit overall tightened slightly in the first quarter and other types of debt declined.

Commodities

·     Oil prices surged on Tuesday with WTI crude jumping $4.17 or over 20% to settle at $24.56 per barrel, its 5th straight daily advance. The advance was the longest such since last July on expectations of improving demand with many US states removing the lockdown on their economies. Brent Crude oil hits $30 a barrel for first time since April 15. Natural gas prices rise 6.6% to settle at a 15-week high of $2.13 mln btus amid colder weather forecasts. June gold prices slipped -$2.70 or 0.2% to settle at $1,710.60 an ounce, bouncing off earlier lows.

Currencies & Treasuries

·     The Treasury yield on the benchmark 10-year again stayed in the tight trading range it’s been in over the last three weeks, topping out today again around 0.67%, up a few bps (been in range of 0.54% to 0.67% since April 16^th). Treasury markets have remained quiet over the last month despite U.S. stocks recovering sharply off their March lows. Late yesterday, the Treasury Department said it plans to borrow $2.999T in Q2, up $3.055B from Feb estimates and follows $477B in Q1.

·     The U.S. dollar index (DXY) posted gains despite another round of weak economic data (ISM services) and expected weaker data this week (nonfarm payrolls), rising against the euro which declined after Germany’s highest court said that the European Central Bank exceeded its powers by launching a massive quantitative easing effort in 2015, and ordered the German government "to take active steps" against the program in its current form.

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Retailers; LB shares fell after reaching a mutual agreement with Sycamore Partners to terminate their previously announced transaction/as part of L Brands’ strategy, the company remains committed to establishing Bath & Body Works as a pure-play public company; AOBC, RGR, VSTO shares active after NICS background checks for firearm purchases increased 69.1% in April following an 80.3% increase in March

·     Consumer Staples; SYY reports a miss in Q1 earnings, reports total case volume within U.S. Broadline operations decreased 5.2% in Q3, of which a decrease of 5.8% was organic and U.S. Foodservice Operations sales declined 5.1% to $9.6B

·     Restaurants; restaurants slide specifically burger related (MCD, RRGB, YUM) after reports that 1 of every 5 WEN’s is out of beef due to meat shortages; BLMN Q1 comp sales were down 10.4% in the U.S., including a 13.9% drop for Bonefish and 13.2% decline for Fleming’s while guided Q1 EPS 14c below estimates of 19c and suspended action with its strategic review; SBUX said it sees more than 85% of company-operated U.S. stores reopened by May 9^th; SHAK mixed earnings as comp sales have improved sharply over the last 5 weeks, to -45% the week ending 4/29, from -73% the week ending 3/25 as cost cuts have supported restaurant margins; TXRH busy after earnings as weekly sales improvement through April was also very encouraging, with comps down 37%/45% in the weeks ended 4/21 and 4/28, respectively; TACO rises post earnings

·     Housing, Home Retail & Building Products; Wayfair (W) shoots sharply higher after topping Q1 expectations on revenue growth of 20%/active customers in the direct retail business channel rose 28.6% to 21.1M/said quarter-to-date revenue is up 90% as momentum has stayed strong into Q2; USCR posts better-than-expected Q1 revenue and adj. EBITDA, helped by higher selling price of ready-mixed concrete; withdraws 2020 outlook due to COVID-19 pandemic; MHK 1Q results missed consensus slightly on the operating profit line/April sales were -35% y/y, and management anticipates an operating (EBIT) loss in 2Q; in homebuilders LGIH shares rallied after earnings while MTH declined; MLM shares slide in building products space

·     Casino & Leisure movers; in cruise lines, NCLH shares slide early after filing to sell shares and uses “going concern” language ahead of debt deal (launches $350 mln stock offering and concurrent $650 mln 4-yr exchangeable notes offering and $600 mln 4-yr straight debt deal); In lodging, MAR boosts its liquidity by amending its co-brand credit card agreements with JPM where it will get $570M, and $350M from AXP for the pre-purchase of Marriott Bonvoy points and other consideration

·     Auto movers; HTZ shares plunged 25% overnight after the WSJ reported the company has hired an additional adviser to help prepare for a bankruptcy filing/this morning the co enters into forbearances and limited waivers with certain lenders and holders of its asset-backed vehicle debt; HOG upgraded to buy from hold at Argus with $30 tgt reflecting our positive view of the company’s new strategic plan; FCAU Q1 deliveries down 21% to 818,000 units and sees more significant impact on Q2 results vs Q1; GPI shares jump following better earnings

·     Services; CHGG shares spike after posts better-than-expected Q1 adjusted profit as co benefited from increased levels of growth since the COVID-19 outbreak and guides Q2 revs $135M-$137M above the $123.8M est and accelerating subs growth of 35% YoY

Energy

·     Energy stocks were among the top market gains as prices across the energy complex jumped on hopes for a recovery in vehicle traffic and fuel demand as some European and Asian countries along with several U.S. states began to ease coronavirus lockdown measures; shares of CVX and XOM were among the top gainers in the Dow today. Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports in May are expected to drop to about 6 million barrels per day (bpd), the lowest in almost a decade, and domestic refining output is likely to fall as the coronavirus crisis hits demand, industry sources and analysts say, Reuters reported. The world’s top oil exporter will cut crude production by 23% to about 8.5 million bpd in May and June.

·     E&P sector; FANG reported ~7% miss on EBITDA estimates mainly due to pricing, which was ~4% lower than the Street (NGL and gas missed meaningfully) but production of ~321 Mboe/d (3/5% higher than consensus); CDEV Q1 net loss widened to $548M from $8.1M the year prior, hurt by a non-cash impairment charge and expects to cut up to 40% of production during May in response to weak realized prices; suspends all near-term drilling and completion activity; PE reported modest beats on EBITDA/EPS relative to the Street driven by oil pricing 2% higher than consensus/oil production of 126.6 Mbo/d was 1% higher than consensus

·     Refiner MPC took a Q1 charge of $12.4B on non-cash impairments as the co adjusts to severely lower demand for its product in the wake of a global pandemic/said it will slash its own spending by 30% to $3 billion for this year.

Financials

·     Bank movers; Treasury yields inched higher as stock rallied and investors lightened positions in safe-haven assets; BNPQY reports a better-than-expected first-quarter net income and FY outlook as Q1 net income down at EUR 1.28 bln but topped estimates; SCHW unveiled it "Schwab Stock Slices," a new service that allows investments in any S&P 500 company for as little as $5 each, whatever the actual price of the stocks starting June 9

·     Insurance; EVER shares surge as its accelerating quote request growth (+80% y/y) driving ~56% total y/y revenue growth, ahead of the upper end of guidance; AIG one of top gainers in the S&P early after mixed earnings (UBS noted core EPS was $0.11, a miss to consensus of $0.75 – but Legacy operations were the primary driver of the miss to UBSe, while UNM shares dropped after its quarterly miss as Q1 adjusted EPS $1.35/$2.87B vs. est. $1.38/$3.05B and suspends buyback

Healthcare

·     Pharma movers; AKBA shares jump after announces positive top-line results from global phase 3 program of vadadustat for treatment of anemia due to chronic kidney disease in adult patients on dialysis; BNTX and PFE said that the first participants in the phase 1/2 trial for the BNT162 vaccine program to prevent COVID-19 have been dosed in the U.S

·     Biotech movers; PTLA shares rise after agreeing to be bought by ALXN for $18 per share in cash https://bit.ly/2xAyNic; TGTX shares rise as its UNITY-CLL trial met the primary endpoint of improved progression-free survival (PFS) benefit seen across both previously untreated and relapsed/refractory patient populations; CAPR falls after filing an "at-the-market" sales agreement to sell shares worth up to $40M to fund R&D, manufacturing of its products, and other uses; INSM 9.7M share offering priced @ $23.25; REGN reports bigger-than-expected quarterly profit, benefiting from higher demand for its blockbuster drug Eylea which rose 6.3%

·     Medical equipment and devices; GNMK after reports smaller than expected loss and raises year rev view to $120M-$130M vs. est. $108.5M and raises GM guidance to 38%-40% range

·     Healthcare services and providers; OMI downgraded at Baird saying confidence was severely reduced by OMI’s short-term production ramp costs, an already challenging revenue year and reduction in market volumes; ACHC rises as adj EBITDA came in 1% above consensus with margins 30bps above consensus; THC in hospital and HSIC among other healthcare service stocks rising in reaction to earnings results

Industrials & Materials

·     Industrial & Machinery; heavy duty trucks active (CMI, PCAR, NAV) as April preliminary NAFTA (U.S., Canada, Mexico, and for Export) Class 8 commercial truck net orders registered 4,100 (-72% y/y, -46% m/m), according to ACT Research data; ITRI shares fall after Q1 missed estimates and guided Q1 well below consensus as gross margin of 28.7% (-180 bps Y/Y), due to product mix and manufacturing inefficiencies; ALSN, KMT among other gainers on results

·     Transports; Dow Transports rise, but fall from best levels of the day (was as high as 8,188), with CAR (follows HTZ lower) and airlines LUV, DAL, UAL, AAL falling while top gainers led by package delivery FDX, UPS as more US states reopen their economy; ALK reported a smaller than expected quarterly loss and suspended its cap-ex spending; tankers NAT, DHT, STNG slipped, giving back recent gains to reflect the bounce in crude prices today reflecting rising demand as COVID-19-related shutdowns ease, reducing need for floating storage

·     Metals & Materials; NEM adjusted Q1 earnings and revenues both slightly missed analyst expectations despite a big jump in quarterly profit; steel stocks extended yesterday gains after reports overnight that NUE has raised the price of hot-rolled, cold-rolled and galvanized by a minimum of $50/ton, and U.S. Steel (X) told customers it will increase the price of all new flat-rolled products spot orders by a minimum of $60/ton

·     Aerospace & Defense; LDOS reports Q1 misses for the period ending on April 3 and lowers its FY outlook as now sees FY20 revenue of $12.5-12.9B (from $12.6-13B), EPS of $5-5.30 (from $5.30-5.65), adjusted EBITDA margins of 9.8-10% (from 10-10.2%); AER posts better-than-expected Q1 EPS, helped by higher maintenance rev and higher net gain on sale of assets while cuts 2020 capex by $2.3 bln and defers over 60 aircraft deliveries due to the coronavirus crisis; TDG reported in-line Q2 sales and an EPS beat while withdrew its guidance for the year/sees OEM end market shrinking 25-40% for rest of 2020

·     Materials and Chemicals; DD Q1 EPS beat by 9c while sales slipped 4% to $5.2B as the company doubles its annual cost-savings target, slashes capital expenditure by about $500M to weather the coronavirus crisis; MOS shares rise after top and bottom line beat; in paper space, WRK shares tumble on mixed Q2 results while says it will reduce its planned FY20-FY21 capital investments and cutting its quarterly dividend to 20c from 80c in order to preserve cash amid the pandemic; other movers on earnings include LPX, GLT and SEE; RPM sees Q4 sales for its consumer group being flat to slightly up

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Semiconductors; SWKS posts Q2 rev and profit above Wall Street expectations and says suspension of Mexicali, Mexico ops due to COVID-19 not expected to have a significant impact on overall business/guides Q3 profit and rev below Street est due to falling headset demand; CRUS Q4 results beat expectations and gave an outlook that analysts said looked soft; IPGP shares surge, leading semis after 15c EPS beat on higher revs and boosts share buyback plan; RMBS another gainer after earnings results

·     Software movers; CRM and WDAY were both initiated with sell ratings at Rosenblatt saying for CRM, believe the company’s 20%+ annual organic revenue growth target and FY24 revenue target of $35B are at risk; APPF was downgraded to underperform at Davidson as view the current valuation as incompatible with withdrawn 2020 guidance; SPLK announces new strategic partnership with GOOGL that will soon make Splunk Cloud tightly integrated with cloud offering; earnings tonight from the video game sector (EA, ATVI)

·     Media & Telecom movers; all eyes on DIS earnings after the close tonight, likely hurt from park closures and sporting events (ESPN segment); Morgan Stanley lowers tgts for: AMCX to $27 from $47, FOXA to $30 from $46, VIAC to $19 from $42, DISCK to $22 from $32 and MSGN to $10 from $14; AMCX reported weaker Q1 results as ad revenue sunk 11%; ATUS was downgraded at Bernstein as no longer regard ATUS as a standout risk/reward

·     Hardware & Component news; FN shares dropped initially as reports Q3 revenue of $411.2M missing the estimates of $414.1M, while also forecasts Q4 revenue and adjusted profit below estimates (shares recovered this morning); AAPL announced to host virtual worldwide developers conference from June 22