Market Review: May 07, 2020

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Closing Recap

Thursday, May 07, 2020





DJ Industrials




S&P 500








Russell 2000





Equity Market Recap

·     U.S. stocks advanced broadly with the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite flirting with the 9,000 level throughout the day (high 9,015) following strong earnings results in software (turning positive for the year), while the Dow Jones Industrials touched highs around 24,100 before sliding late in the session near session lows below 23,900 as investors remained cautious of tomorrow’s monthly jobs report, which is expected to show over 21-million individuals losing their jobs in the month. Economic data was weak today as more than 3 million more Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, bringing the total to about 33.5 million since the coronavirus outbreak began. Gold jumped 2% after a string of weak economic data, including surging unemployment in the U.S., heightened fears over a coronavirus-induced global downturn, while investors turned their attention to nonfarm payrolls tomorrow. Oil prices posted a midday collapse, giving up earlier gains as traders continued to weigh the outlook for energy demand. WTI crude oil fell 44 cents, or 1.8%, to settle at $23.55 a barrel helped earlier by Saudi Arabia’s decision to lift prices to help stabilize values and a monthly climb. Stocks were strong all day as states begin to reopen their economies (hoping demand returns) as well reports overnight that top Chinese and U.S. trade negotiators will speak as soon as next week on progress in implementing a phase-one deal after President Donald Trump threatened to “terminate” the agreement if Beijing wasn’t adhering to the terms. Also helping was positive Chinese economic data, with improving exports. Upbeat Fed commentary sparking buying interest as the Fed’s Bostic said he is hopeful that the Fed’s emergency programs and fiscal support will reduce the likelihood of a lengthy downturn.

Economic Data

·     Weekly jobless claims were 3.16M vs. est. 3.0M (last week 3.839M) while continuing claims surge to 22.647M vs. est. 19.8M (prior week claims were 17.992M); the 4-week moving average fell to 4,173,500 May 2 week from 5,035,000 prior week (previous 5,033,250); insured unemployment rate rose to 15.5% from 12.4% prior week

·     U.S. Q1 nonfarm productivity fell (-2.5%), better than the expected decline of (-5.5%), while nonfarm productivity rose 1.2% in the fourth quarter. Unit labor costs rose 4.8% in 1Q vs. up 0.9% prior quarter and slightly more than the 4.5% estimate. Output fell 6.2% in 1Q vs. up 2.4% prior quarter and compensation per hour rose 2.2% in 1Q vs. up 2.1% prior quarter



·     Crude oil prices with a sharp about face, as WTI crude fell 44c or 1.8% to settle at $23.55 per barrel, falling from intraday highs of $26.74, but still on track for one of its best weeks in its history, supported by bullish factors including U.S. companies cutting production, Saudi Arabia raising its official oil selling price and gasoline demand improving as economies around the world reopen. Shares of oil and gas stocks jumped after Saudi Arabia raised official selling prices for its crude and a surprise rise in Chinese exports last month fed hopes for further rises in fuel demand. But prices couldn’t hold as stocks pared gains heading into the weekly Baker Hughes rig count data tomorrow. Prices are still on track for gains of over 30% this week. Promising signs of rebounding gasoline demand in the U.S. and a rapid curtailment of oil production that has seen U.S. producers cut over one million barrels per day of output in a matter of weeks has helped. Gold prices surged mid-afternoon, rising $37.30 or 2.2% to settle at $1,725.80 an ounce, getting a boost late day as the dollar reversed from earlier gains and Treasury yields sunk across the board, with the 2-year and 5-year yields touching lifetime lows.


Currencies & Treasuries

·     The U.S. dollar took a turn lower mid-afternoon, as the euro recovered from earlier two-week lows of 1.0767 (down 0.25%) before pushing to highs late day around 1.083 (up 0.35), as selling pressure in the greenback persisted into the monthly jobs report tomorrow morning. The buck was lower vs. nearly all major currencies late day. Treasury prices advanced, as the yield on the 2-year yield traded to record lows below 0.13%, over 4 bps as economic data revealed more of the damage caused by measures to contain the coronavirus pandemic (prior record low stood at 0.1431%). Following the 2-year earlier, the US 5-year Treasury yield falls to a record low as well, dropping below the 0.3% level. The 10-year yield meanwhile fell to lows of 0.61%, just a day after hitting 3-week highs above 0.74% in the broad yield pullback.






WTI Crude















10-Year Note





Sector News Breakdown


·     Auto sector; LYFT shares lift ride hailing UBER after the co reported revs of $995M, rising 23% YoY and topping the $884.7M estimate while saying expects to remove $300M in expenses in Q4; CVNA shares drop after a larger than expected Q1 loss on light revs/said weekly retail unit sales dropped about 30% in April before rebounding to roughly 20%-30% YoY growth in recent weeks; GM was upgraded to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank and raise tgt to $30 after earnings; UBER next up with earnings after the close in ride hailing sector

·     Retailers; group gets a boost after Dow Jones reported Brookfield Asset Management Inc., a major owner of malls, plans to devote $5 billion to shoring up retailers hit by the coronavirus pandemic; GPS said it plans to open 800 stores by the end of May, starting with select Texas locations this weekend and includes re-openings across the company’s portfolio of chains including Old Navy, Banana Republic and Athleta; KSS said it opened stores across four states on Monday and will re-open doors to stores across an additional 10 states on May 11; VSTO mixed as EPS beat while sales fell 17% YoY to $426M and guides Q1 sales $370M-$400M, down from the $460M figure in the year ago period and a weaker EPS outlook; COST reported a flat April comp (ex. gas and FX) in the US while US comparable sales ex-gas, etc. rose 11.2%; RGR reported strong 1Q results that beat estimates and had strong backlog of orders at the end of the quarter

·     Consumer Staples & Restaurants; NUS jumps after earnings results top views; DPZ to replace CPRI in the S&P 500 index; EAT priced 7M share offering at $18.25 per share; HAIN Q3 EPS topped views and prior year and boosted its guidance for the year lifting shares

·     Casino & Leisure movers; PTON raises its forecast for full-year revenue to be in the range of $1.72B-$1.74B from prior $1.53B-$1.55B after Q3 revs of $524.6M topped the $487.7M; casinos active on results as WYNN posted Q1 EPS loss ($3.54)/$953.7M vs. est. loss (72c)/$1.08B; saw a 64% decline in Wynn Palace operating revenue and 56% drop in Wynn Macau revenue during the quarter; PENN reports drops in every segment during Q1 as COVID-19 disrupted casino traffic in March as adjusted EBITDAR was $252.3M vs. $391.4M a year ago/says the Barstool Sportsbook app will be launched in Q3 (casino stocks still higher despite weaker results); casinos got a late day rally after the Nevada Gaming Commission approved casino virus safety policies.



·     Energy stocks were mixed on earnings results and surging oil which is on track for one of its best weekly returns ever. Prices jumped after Saudi Arabia raised crude prices for customers worldwide; Aramco increased pricing for more of its grades to Asia and for all shipments to Europe and the U.S.; This signals recovery and hint that OPEC+ started cutting production in attempt to balance the market

·     E&P sector; APA said it posted a $4.5B Q1 loss, though the adjusted figure was smaller than expected and revs fell 22% YoY to $1.28B/said it is down to one rig in the Delaware Basin and finishing its last well/Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $764M vs. $1.1B YoY; MRO halted its dividend payouts and share buybacks after swinging to a Q1 loss of $46M vs. $174M a year earlier and cut its cap-ex to up to $1.3B a 50% reduction from actual capital spending last year; PXD jumps after posting stronger than expected Q1 results, while revenues decline 6% Y/Y to $2.26B/said Q1 production of 375K boe/day came in at the top end of its guidance, and Q1 oil production of 223K bbl/day was in the upper half of guidance; other movers on earnings included LPI, WPX, XEC and MUR

·     Utilities & Solar; SEDG shares plunge in solar space after posting Q1 EPS loss of (95c) vs. an expected profit, while the mid-point of SEDG’s expected Q2 revenue range of $305M-$335M missed the $335.99M estimate; CNP announced a $1.4B equity investment to strengthen financial position and eliminate anticipated equity needs through 2022 which includes $725M in mandatory convertible preferred shares and $675M in common shares



·     Bank movers/insurers; MFC posted a 34% drop in core Q1 earnings with declines in its Asia, U.S. and Canada divisions; AMP shares surged after the wealth mgmt firm posted earnings and revs that easily topped consensus and raised its dividend; LNC among top gainers in the S&P in insurance sector after its Q1 beat last night (lifts ATH, PRI, AFL)

·     Consumer finance and lending; SQ posted Q1 surprise net loss of 2c (ests for 13c profit)/quarterly loss widened to $105.89M from $38.15M as operating expenses, especially sales and marketing, rose; PYPL rises as processed $191B in payments in Q1, up 18% from a year earlier and forecasts strong recovery in payments volume as social distancing led to surge in digital transactions (profit plunged 87.4% as it boosted credit loss reserves, but still beat); GPMT has tapped EVR for strategic advice as it looks to shore up financial positions – says exploring financing alternatives among other options according to Bloomberg headlines

·     REITs; SPG downgraded at Wells Fargo as continue to favor strip center REITs over mall REITs given greater exposure to necessity-oriented tenants; WELL cuts its May 2020 dividend to 61c from 87c while authorizes share repurchase program for up to $1B of common stock; INVH posted solid 1Q20 operating results that met recently lowered expectations and like peers, pulled its prior 2020 guidance given greater COVID-related uncertainty; Mizuho noted four Apartment REITs (AVB, ESS, MAA and UDR) reported earnings last night – firm found ESS (April new lease rate up vs 1Q20) and UDR (leading rent collections) most encouraging, while MAA’s (April new lease rate decline) was least encouraging; EXR reported a steady 1Q beat, with SSREV and SSNOI growth in line with expectations at 1.9% and 1.2%, respectively



·     Pharma movers; BMY Q1 adj EPS $1.72 on revs $10.78B vs. est. $1.45 and $9.53B/reaffirms year EPS $6.00-$6.20 vs. est. $6.08/Q1 Opdivo revs $1.77B vs. est. $1.73B; GSK says starts clinical trial to test experimental rheumatoid-arthritis drug Otilimab as treating for severe covid-19 related pulmonary disease; in generics, TEVA Q1 EPS of 76c topped the 58c estimate on higher sales ($4.4B); ENDP beats Q1 profit and revs on higher patient demand and increased customer purchasing amid the COVID-19 pandemic while suspends 2020 financial forecast; NBIX reported strong 1Q20 results with Ingrezza’s sales beating expectations despite the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic (1Q net Ingrezza product sales $231.1M, +69% YoY); ELAN reported 1Q results light of consensus, with revenue of $658M (vs. $722M) and EPS of $0.13 ($0.24 est.), with the company citing working capital issues driven by COVID-19 and distribution channel

·     Biotech movers; MRNA said it expects mid-stage trial for its COVID-19 vaccine to begin shortly and says late-stage trial will start early summer as the FDA has completed its review of co’s Investigational NDA for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, mRNA-1273; PBYI said that China’s National Medical Products Administration has approved Nerlynx (neratinib) for the extended adjuvant treatment of adult patients with early-stage human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive breast cancer; LVGO rises as reported 1Q20 revenue growth of 115%+ y/y and management guided to 71-78% growth in 2020 and announced a deal with the Government Employees Health Association (GEHA), covering ~2M individuals; RARE EPS miss was largely driven by greater-than-expected expenses ($157M vs cons. $133M) which included $25M to maintain the option to acquire GeneTx

·     Medical equipment and devices; DXCM to replace AGN in the S&P 500 index (AGN being acquired by ABBV); EXAS reported improving Cologuard test volume trends of down 47% for last 10 days of April vs down 63% for first 20 days of month, while Q1 results in line with preannounced levels, and issues no 2020 revenue guidance; BDX reported F2Q results this am, with revenue of $4.25B (vs. $4.16B) and EPS of $2.55 (vs. cons $2.38), ahead of rebased expectations and largely in-line with street consensus from early March; NUVA 1Q results were line with pre-announcement and April impact is looking similar to peers with modest recovery evidence according to one analyst; DHR shares fall after offering $2.5B worth of stocks, and convertible preferreds

·     Healthcare services and providers; TVTY said it’s exploring alternatives for nutrition business; engaged Lazard as the company’s financial advisor; SDC announced the sale of its at-home impression kits to dentists and orthodontists to meet the demand from these doctors to help them safely and remotely provide oral care to their patients during the ongoing pandemic


Industrials & Materials

·     Materials, Industrial & Machinery; BGG shares weak after Q3 sales fell to $474M, missing the $520M estimate while noting cost cutting plans have resulted in reduction of inventories by $85M during quarter; BLL lowered its free cash flow guidance to $500m from $600m; OTIS an outperformer after stellar quarterly results

·     Transports; JBLU reports revenue fell (-15.1%) in Q1, including a (-52%) drop in March as COVID-19 decimated travel demand/revenue passenger miles fell (-18.4%) during the quarter and capacity was off 3.5%, leading to a load factor drop to 69.8% from 82.5% a year ago; SAVE posts Q1 rev of $771.1M, missing the $810M est while adj EPS loss was wider and said it’s in discussions with Airbus SE to defer jet deliveries in effort to reduce aircraft capital spending


Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Internet; ETSY posted mixed Q1 results (EPS missed) while said the recent surge in demand it has experienced is likely to ease but GMS strength in April will support strong top-line growth for the quarter; SHOP downgraded by several analysts following stronger earnings and surge in shares to record highs; ANGI rises after posting a smaller-than-expected Q1 loss, helped by strength in its marketplace segment and noted had YoY rev growth was 19% in Jan. and 21% in Feb., before decelerating to 1% in March 2020 due to the impact of COVID-19; GRUB slides despite quarterly beat as analyst question the sustainability of current trends

·     Software movers; TWLO shares jumped after Q1 beat and guided Q2 revs $365M-4370M, above the $337M estimate on a smaller loss and said active customers up 23% YoY to 190K; AYX posted a Q1 beat top and bottom line but guided Q2 revs $91M-$95M vs. est. $107M weighing on shares; CRM to replace AGN in the S&P 100 index; FSLY reported strong Q1 results (revs $62.9M vs. est. $45.6M) and meaningfully raised 2020 revenue and profitability guidance, with broad-based strength more than offsetting exposures to hard hit areas; HUBS handily beat Q1 expectations, but guided Q2 and 2020 modestly below consensus estimates, primarily due to significant headwinds from COVID-19 that led to a major decline in net retention; in internet security, FTNT tgt raised by several analysts after Q1 beats on better Q2 guidance; RNG reported strong 1Q results as the work-from-home trend drove an acceleration in business communication requirements, healthy big deals, ARR growth, and cash generation; ZNGA Q1 revs beat and Q2 bookings guide of $460M above est. at $422 but FY guide only up slightly and Ad revenue was a headwind and EPS missed; SPT jumps after beat to top & bottom lines & ARR growing 41% while customers over $10k up 58%; PING guides Q2 revs below views and withdraws guidance

·     Media & Telecom movers; VIAC rises after announced a comprehensive, multi-year distribution agreement with GOOGL to deliver more content from ViacomCBS’ leading portfolio of news, entertainment and sports networks for YouTube TV subscribers; TMUS adds more monthly bill paying phone subscribers than expected in Q1 on a surge in demand for cheaper phone services as people work from home amid coronavirus lockdowns, but also revenue of $11.1B misses expectations of $11.4B; SBGI agreed to a record $48 million civil penalty to settle federal probes relating to its failed bid to take over TRCO and other alleged missteps; OUT shares jumped after LAMR said it’s seeing a rapid rebound in traffic and an increase in business activity; CTL reported in line Rev/EBITDA, withdrew FY guidance on COVID uncertainty


Market commentary provided by Catena Media Financials US, LLC, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.

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