Closing Recap

Thursday, May 13, 2021

Index	Up/Down	%	Last
DJ Industrials	433.32	1.29%	34,020
S&P 500	49.39	1.22%	4,112
Nasdaq	93.31	0.72%	13,124
Russell 2000	35.48	1.66%	2,170

 

Equity Market Recap

·     U.S. stocks finished higher across the board, with major averages snapping their three-day losing streak, getting a nice bounce off lows mid-afternoon following CDC “mask” related guideline updates. The CDC advised that fully vaccinated people do not need to wear masks outdoors and can avoid wearing them indoors in most places, updated guidance the agency said will allow life to begin to return to normal. The CDC also said fully vaccinated people will not need to physically distance in most places. The news was well received by equity markets with many “reopen” related stock sectors (lodging, travel, leisure, restaurants) seeing outperformance. Markets largely ignored the second “hot” inflation report in as many days as April Producer Prices (PPI) came in well above economic estimates (while jobless claims slipped). Yet more Fed speakers again today, with the Fed’s Barkin saying that “expectations, business outlook, not pointing to persistent, multi-year jump in inflation” a common mantra of Fed speakers over the last few weeks that the price increases markets have witnessed will be “transitory” not persistent long-term inflation. After spiking more than 20% Wednesday, the CBOE Volatility index (VIX) tumbles about 15% today while Treasury yields slip the first time in 3-days.

·     Bitcoin crashed on the day, sparked by an overnight comment by TSLA CEO Elon Musk said it has suspended the use of bitcoin to purchase its vehicles because of climate concerns. Bitcoin prices dropped as low as $45,000 overnight ($47,000 today) after the tweet. The impact had a negative effect across the crypto-currency world with big losses in Ethereum, Litecoin and the likes, while stocks that invest, or mine Bitcoin (GBTC, COIN, MARA, RIOT, MSTR, ETHE, NCTY) tumbled.

·     Recent IPOs fall double-digits on earnings – in e-commerce, WISH hits its new record low (IPO 12/16) on its weak guidance, CPNG trades at its record low (IPO 3/11) after its first public report, POSH (IPO 1/14) also trades at its lowest ever price, and TDUP (IPO 3/26) avoids making record lows but the stock plummets on its wider-than-expected loss in its 1st earnings; BMBL also stumbles to record lows since its IPO in February after issuing cautiously conservative guidance in its first earnings as a public company.

·     In an interesting turn of events, Bloomberg reported that Colonial Pipeline Co. paid nearly $5 million to Eastern European hackers on Friday, contradicting reports earlier this week that the company had no intention of paying an extortion fee to help restore the country’s largest fuel pipeline. Oil prices tumbled on the day following the news Colonial pipeline was restarting.

 

Economic Data:

·     U.S. jobless claims fell to 473,000 in the latest week, below the 490,000 estimate, while last week was revised to 507,000 from 498,000; the 4-week moving average fell to 534,000 from 562,250 prior week (previous 560,000); continued claims fell to 3.655 mln in latest week (in0line with ests) while the U.S. insured unemployment rate fell to 2.6% from 2.7%

·     Producer Prices rise as April PPI rises 0.6% vs. est. 0.3% and PPI YoY at 6.2% vs. est. 5.9%; core prices (ex food & energy) PPI MoM rises 0.7% vs. rest. 0.4% and YOY rises 4.1% vs. est. 3.7%

 

Commodities, Currencies, Treasuries

·     Oil prices decline as WTI oil slid -$2.26 or 3.42% to settle at $63.82 per barrel as Colonial said the restart of its vital fuel pipeline system is going smoothly after a cyberattack. Colonial Pipeline has made substantial progress in safely restarting our pipeline system and can report that product delivery has commenced in most of the markets we service according to the company. Said by midday project that each market we service will be receiving product from our system. Crude oil prices also hurt as India’s coronavirus crisis worsens and the U.S. Colonial Pipeline resumes operations, halting a rally that had lifted crude to eight-week highs.

·     June gold edges higher $1.20 to settle at $1,824 an ounce, erasing earlier losses, benefitting for a dip in Treasury yields. The dollar index (DXY) was little changed on the day around the 90.80 level as major currencies saw little fluctuation despite the pop in producer prices. Treasury yields managed to edge lower, failing at the 1.7% level for the 10-year, trading in a narrow range most of the day to settle around 1.67%.

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
WTI Crude	-2.26	63.82
Brent	-2.27	67.05
Gold	1.20	1,824.00
EUR/USD	0.0007	1.2075
JPY/USD	-0.21	109.44
10-Year Note	-0.034	1.669%

 

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Retailers; FOSL said it expects Q2 worldwide sales to jump between 50%-55% as pandemic restrictions ease up in key markets and estimates FY21 worldwide sales to grow between 12%-16%; YETI Q1 adj EPS of 38c beat the 22c est.; Q1 sales jumped 42% to $247.6 million, topping analyst estimates of $220.4 million; and raised year EPS view to $2.28 to $2.32 a share, up from a prior forecast of $2.11 to $2.14 a share and sales growth of 20%-22% from prior 15%-17%; BJ upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan as beats expected across the board; the degree is the only question and raising our estimates above the Street for BJ and TGT we raised HD earlier this week), while our WMT forecasts remain the same; FNKO double upgraded to Buy from Underperform at Bank America as see significant long-term opportunity from FNKO’s newly diversified revenue mix beyond Pop! into NFTs, Games, & Toys; BOOT comps rise +27% vs. est. low 20’s, GM beat, and EPS crushed though not providing FY guide

·     Auto sector; VRM reported a smaller than expected quarterly loss of (57c) vs. est. (63c) on better revs of $591.1M vs. est. $518.2M; Ford (F) executive chairman says company will look to reinstate dividend as soon as it is practicable; SFT Q1 loss (5c) was much narrower than est. (44c) loss on revs $106M (+254%) that topped est. $94.5M and sees Q2 revs $120-130M (est. $99.7M); Hyundai Motor Group, which includes Hyundai Motor Company and Kia Corporation, announced its plan to invest $7.4 billion in the U.S. by 2025 to produce future EVs, enhance production facilities and further its investments in smart mobility solutions; XPEV Q1 EPS loss (13c) vs. est. loss (17c) on revs $450.4M vs. est. $440.38M, Q1 deliveries 13,340 (+487.4% YoY, +2.9% QoQ)

·     Housing & Building Products; LOW upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer saying more upbeat call on Lowe’s is largely tactical in nature and hinged upon prospects for a continued flow of funds into more cyclically focused equites; bank America raises RH 1Q ests to reflect industry growth, strong high-end housing and a surge in RH’s web traffic and up tgt to $685

·     Consumer Staples & Restaurants; GRWG increased its FY21 revenue and EBITDA outlook to $450m-$470m and $54m-$58m, respectively and reported 1Q21 revenue of $90m (+173% y/y) including ~60% organic revenue growth; UTZ 1Q adj EPS $0.70 beats but sales $269.2Mm missed the $274.9Mm estimate while reaffirms FY outlook; JACK with strong 2Q earnings results and a better than expected 2H21 sales outlook

·     Casinos, Gaming, Recreational, & Lodging sector; CZR announced that the Nevada Gaming Control Board has approved a return to full occupancy, without social distancing, on the casino floors at all nine of the company’s Las Vegas properties; boat stocks strong (BC, MBUU, MCFT) after Truist noted this morning in dealer listing data gathering call that data shows that April new boat volume jumped 56%+ yoy, marking the second consecutive month of 50%+ gains; reopen related trades (hotels, leisure, theme parks, etc.) saw an afternoon bounce as CDC lessened guidelines for those that have taken the vaccine.

 

Energy

·     Colonial Pipeline Co. paid nearly $5 million to Eastern European hackers on Friday, contradicting reports earlier this week that the company had no intention of paying an extortion fee to help restore the country’s largest fuel pipeline, according to two people familiar with the transaction. The company paid the hefty ransom in untraceable cryptocurrency within hours after the attack, underscoring the immense pressure faced by the Georgia-based operator to get gasoline and jet fuel flowing again to major cities along the Eastern Seaboard https://bloom.bg/3tEO4FD

·     E&P and Majors; KeyBank upgraded PXD to OW as they expect the company’s oil production to come in above its guidance and the stock is currently trading slightly below peers despite its low leverage, strong FCF, and unmatched Permian acreage; Mizuho lifted their price target on WES to $26 and reiterated their Buy rating after raising their estimates following Tuesday’s earnings and operational updates; MEG Q1 loss (62c) vs est. (8c) loss on revs $133.8M vs est. $95.4M and raised its FY21 adj EBITDA guide to $63-70M from $61-67M; MCF posted a Q1 EPS loss (2c) vs est. 9c profit on revs $60M that also missed consensus $63.4M

·     Oil Services and Equipment; Goldman reinstated coverage on BKR at Buy with a $29 pt for its exposure to energy transition and leverage to LNG infrastructure buildout, HAL at Neutral with a $25 tgt as they believe it is appropriately priced though it has a compelling EBITDA and FCF growth story, HP at Sell with a $27 pt that implies 6% downside despite its increasing market share in US onshore contract drilling as the stock appears expensive with limited upside to US land rig count and limited international exposure, NOV at Neutral with an $18 pt as they believe the company’s increased orders expectation into early next year is priced in, LBRT at Buy with a $17 pt on its underappreciated potential for improving profitability, and SLB at Buy with a $38 pt given its underappreciated digital business, leverage to international recovery, and energy transition opportunities

·     Utilities & Solar; Credit Suisse upgraded ARRY to Outperform with a reduced pt of $31 from $40 after the stock’s 46% pullback yesterday and their bullish forecast on solar demand; ENPH was initiated at OW with a $175 target at Capital One; Morgan Stanley reiterated RUN at OW after their meetings with management highlighted the underappreciated value opportunity that EV charging brings since it requires more energy, and also initiated NFE at OW with a $55 pt; TAC reported Q1 EPS loss of (C$0.11) on revs C$642M and said it expects 2021 performance to track at the upper end of its guidance range

 

Financials

·     Bank movers; UBS upgraded FHB to Neutral and raised their estimates and price target as tourism recovers; The Wall Street Journal reported that JPM, WFC, USBand others plan to share data on customers’ deposit accounts to extend credit to people who have traditionally been barred from getting them, and will factor information from applicants’ checking or savings accounts at other financial institutions

·     Insurance; GNW postponed its planned IPO for its subsidiary Enact Holdings; LMND saw its pt lowered at Barclays to $71 from $101 to reflect the market souring on profitless tech companies recently and was separately named as a short call by Muddy Waters; UBS downgraded ATH to Neutral pending its merger with APO, which is expected to close in January 2022 as planned

·     Services; ADS price target was lowered to $135 from $145 at OpCo, though they remain bullish following the announced tax-advantaged spinoff of LoyaltyOne in a transaction they estimate is worth ~$2B; KeyBank lowered its target on OCFT to $24 from $28 but maintained their OW rating as Q1 growth was worse than expected, but this year’s outlook remains unchanged and regulatory headwinds should fade significantly later this year; DA Davidson upgraded QTWO to Buy with a $114 pt

·     Consumer Finance, FinTech movers; Bank America noted total card spending based on aggregated BAC card data showed a 21% increase over a 2-year period for the 7-days ending May 8 – spending on goods has remained robust, growing at a 40% rate over 2 years even as services spending has moved higher; PYPL said it plans to move several core payment-processing applications to Google Cloud as the company experiences an upswing in activity fueled by changing consumer spending habits; PYPL also agrees to acquire Happy Returns, a business that allows shoppers to return online purchases at a physical location.

·     Bitcoin news; Bitcoin prices plunged overnight (fell as low as $45K) before rebounding (and hurting mining stocks MARA, RIOT) after TSLA CEO Musk it has suspended the use of bitcoin to purchase its vehicles because of climate concerns/Musk said Tesla would not sell any bitcoin, and intends to use bitcoin for transactions as soon as mining transitions to more sustainable energy; SI shares surged after the firm announced a partnership with the Diem Association, a Facebook-backed group previously known as Libra; Compass Point initiated COIN at Neutral with a $325 pt as they like it in the near-term given Q3 trading volumes and attractive valuation but have long-term questions about revenue growth and the rate of compression in retail pricing

·     REITs; VTR was upgraded to Outperform with a $58 pt at Baird on their expectation of a multi-year earnings growth runway in senior housing (WELL remains their top pick) and the stock’s recent underperformance, and was double-upgraded at KeyBank to OW with a $60 pt from UW to reflect improving fundamentals in senior housing that saw an inflection in March with move-ins normalizing towards pre-pandemic levels; Stifel upgraded CLDT to Buy as it is currently trading at the lowest prior peak multiple amongst peers and they expect this discount gap to close; LAND reported Q1 FFO and revenue above estimates; Citi initiated INDT at Neutral with a $70 target as it will benefit from secular industrial trends but are concerned with execution risk and prefer PLD, DRE, REXR among industrial REITs

 

Healthcare

·     Pharma movers; U.S. states are set to begin using the vaccine from PFE, BNTX to inoculate young adolescents against COVID-19 after advisers to the U.S. CDC backed the plan in a unanimous vote on Wednesday; HRTX says U.S. FDA has approved its non-opioid painkiller, ZYNRELEF, for managing post-operative pain for up to 72 hours and expects full commercial availability by July

·     MedTech Equipment; HAE F4Q was slightly ahead of consensus (revs $225M vs. $223M cons) on revs though EPS was light ($0.46 vs. $0.67), with disruption from COVID-19 in the qtr and provided initial FY22 guidance light of street on the bottom line; in healthcare Services; AMWL missed 1Q revenue consensus (no quarterly guide), reported a better EBITDA loss and reiterated revenue/EBITDA guidance for the year, but guided 2Q revenue below consensus; ONEM Q1 revenue and adj. EBITDA beat as soft Q2 guidance bracketed consensus on the top line, but was below the Street on membership

 

Industrials & Materials

·     Industrials, Aerospace & Defense; BA gets approval from U.S. regulators for a fix of an electrical grounding issue that had affected about 100 737 MAX airplanes; MOG upgraded to Buy at Canaccord and raised tgt to $100 from $85 saying while the stock has climbed back close to pre-crisis levels (2019 high of ~$95), it trades at under 10x our 2022 EBITDA estimate, a significant discount to its peer group; FLR shares fell as announced convertible preferred stock offering overnight; shares of HON, MMM outperformed in the industrial sector, helping the Dow push higher; NUE announced a new share repurchase program of up to $3 bln of shares, replacing its previously authorized $2 bln share buyback

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Internet; POSH shares slumped after posts wider quarterly loss of $74.5M vs. bout a $11M a year ago due to higher costs, while guided Q2 revs better at $79M-$81M vs. est. $79.3M; BABA reported Q4 EPS 10.32 yuan vs est. 11.57 yuan on revs 187.4B yuan vs est. 180.4B yuan, sees FY22 revs above 930b yuan (est. 923.5b yuan); CPNG posted a Q1 EPS loss (68c) vs ($5.74) YoY on revs $4.21B vs $2.41B YoY, total active customers 16M (+21% YoY) and was upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank given its strengthening position in Korean retail and growth that is outpacing the country’s retail sales growth; BILI Q1 EPS (1.87 yuan) loss was narrower than est. (2.08 yuan) loss on revs 3.9B yuan vs est. 3.78B yuan and forecasts Q2 revs 4.25-4.35B yuan (est. 4.15B yuan); WISH Q1 net loss ($128M) on revs $772M vs est. $743.1M and guided Q2 revs $715-730M that was below consensus $759.1M; APP Q1 EPS (5c) missed expectations of an 11c profit on revs $603.9B (+132% YoY) that beat est. $557.4M and sees FY21 revs $2.65-2.75B above est. $2.51B; Evercore upgraded PSTG to Outperform with a $30 pt

·     Hardware, Components & Services; SONO boosted its annual sales forecast (sees sales $1.65B vs. prior view of $1.55B) after posts Q2 sales and profit that also beat estimates citing strong demand for its products; DOX delivered solid 2Q results however the underlying tone was significantly more upbeat according to Oppenheimer noting backlog saw highest growth in years and solid demand from North American carrier customers drove improved outlook

·     Media, Leisure, & Telecom; BMBL reported 1Q results that topped Street expectations across the board amid accelerating paying user / ARPPU growth and the company issued 2Q guidance slightly above Consensus but only modestly raised its FY:21 revenue/adj. EBITDA outlook; PLBY reported strong Q1 results driven by its direct-to-consumer segment, which more than doubled y/y and executed on its stated goals, building out its DTC properties, O&O products, and new growth opportunities

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Salvatore Nisi

Hammerstone Markets Inc.

79 Old Ridgefield Road

Wilton, Connecticut 06897

203.274.8935 (direct)

 

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