Mid-Morning Look

Friday, March 25, 2022

U.S. stocks are mixed early as most S&P sectors seeing early strength outside a few small pockets of weakness in energy and technology as the rip-fest over the last week tries to push higher. Financials, along with gains in defensive sectors utilities, healthcare, REITs, and staples join advances in industrials and materials as the Dow comes into the day up 7 of last 9 days and both the S&P and Nasdaq up 6 of the last 8, including a 1% or advance for the S&P during that stretch, with the only dates that match since 1970 being: 3/24/2022, 11/9/2020, 10/21/1974, and 10/18/1974 according to reports. The S&P 500 is on pace for its first back-to-back weekly gains since the last week of January and first week of February, while the Nasdaq is on pace for its first back-to-back gains since 11/5. Bitcoin extends weekly gains, topping the $45K level. The global stock move has been momentum based, building to the upside with every break of negative trend lines and taking out key technical resistance levels as the macro news over the last 2-weeks has not been positive. The Fed is on a path to sharply higher rates to tame inflation, with signs of a 50-bps hike in the May meeting, while the Russia/Ukraine saga enters its 2^nd month with no signs of abating. Markets have witnessed a big spike in yields as 10-yr up 10bps to 2.44%, 2-yr 11-bps move to 2.234%, 7-yr hits 2.5% up 10 bps (10-yr up 100-bps over the last 6-weeks alone), while commodity and food prices continue to sky-rocket. The S&P currently up +0.5% at highs of the day as momentum builds into the weekend.

Economic Data

·     University of Michigan consumer sentiment index at lowest since August 2011, as final March 59.4 below consensus 59.7 and preliminary March 59.7 and final Feb 62.8; the current conditions index final March 67.2 vs prelim March 67.8 and final Feb 68.2 and consumers expectations index final March 54.3 vs prelim March 54.4 and final Feb 59.4; the one-year inflation expectations index at highest since November 1981

·     Pending Home sales index dropped -4.1% vs. est. +1.0% and Pending Home sales -5.4% y/y

Stock GAINERS

·     BBBY +1%; reached an agreement with activist investor Ryan Cohen and RC Ventures LLC, which own a roughly 9.8% stake to have three director designees join its board of directors;

·     DAL +2%; strength in airline and travel names early – UAL, JBLU, BKNG

·     DXCM +3%; announces 4 for 1 stock split

·     ETNB +5%; provided promising updates for pegozafermin, which is being evaluated as a treatment for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis and severe hypertriglyceridemia

·     SWN +7%; along with nat gas levered names CTRA, EQT, RRC as natural gas prices on track for best week since January

·     TLRY +7%; cannabis names outperform, building on momentum late yesterday after report that said Congress plans vote on federal legalization of the drug next week

Stock LAGGARDS

·     ACI -7%; after ISI/Evercore noted that March month-to-date web traffic fell 19% y/y for ACI, based on SimilarWeb data

·     CCL -3%; downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus as think that Carnival’s prospects have deteriorated amid the slow recovery from the Omicron surge and rapidly rising fuel costs

·     HNST -26%; disappointing Q4 adjusted EPS loss of -$0.10 which came in worse than consensus estimate of -$0.06 as Q4 revenue grew +3.2% to $80.4M, which missed the Street ($84.5M)

·     ICVX -51%; after provided topline interim results from its Phase 1/2 clinical trial of vaccine candidate IVX-411 against SARS-CoV-2 that disappointed

·     JD -4%; pullback on U.S. listed China names – BIDU, BABA, TCEHY

·     MEIP -45%; downgraded by several analysts following announcement that FDA does not consider the single arm TIDAL trial of MEIP’s PI3K delta inhibitor, zandelisib (zib) sufficient to establish safety and efficacy

·     NVAX -6%, MRNA -6%; as vaccine names under pressure early

·     OKTA -4%; falling for a 5th straight day following news this week that the cybercrime group LAPSUS$ had breached the company’s network

·     PRPL -4%; 14M share Spot Secondary priced at $6.10