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Mid-Morning Look

Friday, May 29, 2020

U.S. equities moving lower in a volatile start to the final trading day of the month as markets prepare for commentary later (no time set yet) from President Trump at a press conference with potential sanctions on Chinese officials expected following Beijing’s move to impose national security legislation on Hong Kong. The implications of possible sanctions could derail the progress made between the two nations related to their trade dispute and also further weaken a fragile U.S. economy trying to recover from the coronavirus lockdown impact. Asian and European markets slipped overnight as well. Despite the recent pullback in stocks the last 2-sessions, major averages are on track for monthly returns between 3% and 5% as investors bought technology stocks along with financials and beaten up coronavirus impacted airlines, casinos, retailers, restaurants and leisure names over the last few weeks. Software stocks are mixed after earnings results last night as ZS, GLUU, VMW, VEEV, OKTA rise on results while CRM slips on a lower forecast. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was down to 0.67% while gold prices inch higher as investors look to safe haven assets ahead of Trump comments.

Economic Data

·     Chicago PMI business index for May misses, reported at 32.3, missing the est. of 40 and below the prior month reading of 35.4

·     University of Michigan Sentiment shows final May 72.3 (consensus 74.0) vs. preliminary May 73.7 and final April 71.8; current conditions index final May 82.3 vs. prelim May 83.0 and final April 74.3 and expectations index final May 65.9 vs. prelim May 67.7 and final April 70.1

·     Personal Spending for April fell (-13.6% MoM) worse than the est. decline (-12.8%), while Personal income in April rose 10.5% (includes stimulus checks) vs. est. -6%; real personal spending fell 13.2%; inflation readings show that PCE prices fell (0.5% MoM) vs. est. drop (-0.6%) while YoY prices rose 0.5%; Core prices fell (-0.4% MoM vs. est. -0.3%) and rose 1.0% YoY

·     Advance Goods Trade Deficit for April widened to (-$69.7B) from (-$65.0B) last month which was also the estimate; imports fell (-14.3%) in April to $165.048B from $192.521B in March and exports fell (-25.2%) in April to $95.373B from $127.54B in March; wholesale merchant trade inventories rose 0.4% in April to $651.5B

Sector Movers Today

·     ASCO abstracts out this morning for the virtual cancer meeting this weekend (American Society of Clinical Oncology): ADAP surges after presenting updated data from early-stage studies in patients with a number of cancers; SGEN announces positive results from exploratory analyses of her2climb for Tukysa(tm) (tucatinib) in brain metastases patients with her2-positive breast cancer; ALLO active as additional blood cancer responses seen with ALLO off-the-shelf CAR-T cells, updated study shows; PHIO rises after announcing positive data from in vivo studies that show strong antitumor efficacy with several of its INTASYL pipeline programs, including PH-762, PH-894 and PH-804; MGNX slips after releasing additional data about its cancer drugs at ASCO/released updated data from early studies of MGD013 and MGC018; several other abstracts out this morning ahead of virtual meeting

·     Leisure sector; RV stocks active after THO said it sees stronger demand from its independent dealers with a focus and urgency on North American summer camping and RV travel season, as lockdown restrictions begin to ease (CWH, LCII, WGO active); PII was upgraded at Wedbush to outperform and raised tgt to $106 from $68 as think that the powersports names in general and Polaris in particular could prove to be great ‘reopening stocks’, as consumers that have been cooped up in their homes for months will take to the outdoors

·     Software movers; ZS surges as reports strong Q3 results with adj. billings accelerating to +55% y/y vs. 30% last quarter as the company benefited from WFH/Covid-19 tailwinds/ZPA momentum was a key driver of the outperformance, as the mix of ZPA increased to 43% of new business” vs. 20% in F1H’20; VEEV results came in better than expected with billings, revenue, and margins all above the Street expectations/billings were ~$12M above consensus ($334M vs. $322M) despite a -$10M drag from a large customer changing its billing cycle; VMW reported a good overall F1Q, as the co. meaningfully exceeded expectations after having withdrawn its guidance in late March as total revenue, billings, EPS and CFFO all came in well above our and Street forecasts; OKTA Reported solid qtr beating on rev, billings, and pro forma EPS despite COVID headwinds; CRM in-line/slightly better results but lowers year profit and revenue outlook

·     Retailers; COST 3Q earnings that analysts said were generally in line with their expectations but weaker store traffic and higher operating costs related to Covid-19 weighed on results; VFC was downgraded to hold from buy at Argus to reflect slowing sales of Vans and Timberland footwear, as well as high North Face inventor; JWN slips early as Q1 overall sales dropped 40% from the year earlier to $2.03 billion YoY while sales were down 36% in its full-price locations and 45% among off-price shops/also reported a loss of $521 million, or $3.33 a share for Q1; WSM rises after better Q1 results, beating on comps (comps of +2.6% beat consensus’ -11.4% estimate); BIG rises on upbeat results and strong Q2 start as Q1 comparable sales surge 10.3% and EPS up 37% as consumers look for value-priced items amid health crisis

Stock GAINERS

·     AZN +3%; said its Tagrisso drug demonstrated unprecedented patient benefit in the adjuvant treatment of EGFR-mutated lung cancer in the Phase III ADAURA trial; said Tagrisso demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in disease-free survival

·     BIG +8%; upbeat results and strong Q2 start as Q1 comparable sales surge 10.3% and EPS up 37% as consumers look for value-priced items amid health crisis

·     GLUU +12%; raises Q2 bookings view to $162.5M-$167.5M from $150M-$155M and also boosts FY20 bookings view to $502.5M-$512.5M from $490M-$500M; says they’ve seen significant momentum in the business

·     MRVL +9%; second beat and raise in a row as the growth story looks back on track with the 5G story playing out and a third cloud leg (now >10% of revenue vs low levels last year); Rosenblatt moves to a street-high $42 PT

·     PSTG +6%; strong 1Q, handily beating on top/bottom line and even slightly exceeding original guidance as outperformance driven by strong execution across PSTG’s broadening portfolio of solutions and pull-fwd of certain large projects

·     SNOA +230%; said its disinfectant & sanitizer received approval to be entered in Australian Register of Therapeutic Goods for use against COVID-19

·     VMW +7%; reported stronger-than-expected F1Q results, overachieving on subscription and SaaS as well as license revenue despite the challenging environment.

·     ZS +20%; reports strong Q3 results with adj. billings accelerating to +55% y/y vs. 30% last quarter as the company benefited from WFH/Covid-19 tailwinds

Stock LAGGARDS

·     ARVN -25% after saying one prostate cancer patient in its Phase 1 trial had a confirmed response to treatment with ARV-110 and has gone 18 weeks without disease progression.

·     COST -2%; after reporting 3Q earnings that analysts said were generally in line with their expectations but weaker store traffic and higher operating costs related to Covid-19 weighed on results.

·     CRM -4%; mostly in-line Q1 results but lowers year revs to $20B from prior view $21B-$21.1B (est. $20.67B) and lowers year EPS to $2.93-$2.95 from prior $3.16-$3.18

·     DXC 7%; after it suspended dividend, Q4 revenue fell short of estimates and also sees decline in Q1 revenue, prompting JPMorgan to downgrade to neutral and several analysts lower tgts

·     NERV -66%; announces results from phase 3 trial of roluperidone (min-101) for treatment of negative symptoms in schizophrenia/64 mg and 32 mg doses were not statistically significantly different from placebo at week 12 on the primary endpoint

·     TWTR -2%; after President Trump has signed an executive order that aims to limit the broad legal protection that federal law currently provides to social media and other online platform

Syndicate:

·     Arcus Biosciences (RCUS) 11M share Secondary priced at $27.05

·     Boston Omaha (BOMN) 3.2M share Secondary priced at $16.00

·     BridgeBio (BBIO) 2.4M share Block Trade priced at $33.65

·     Essent Group (ESNT) 12M share Secondary priced at $33.25

·     Fiverr (FVRR) 2M share Secondary priced at $60.00

·     Iovance Biotherapeutics (IOVA) 16.9M share Secondary priced at $31.00

·     Marinus Pharmaceuticals (MRNS) 16M share Spot Secondary priced at $2.50

·     Mersana Therapeutics (MRSN) 8M share Secondary priced at $19.00

·     National Fuel (NFG) 3.8M share Spot Secondary priced at $39.50

·     Repay Holdings (RPAY) 8M share Secondary priced at $20.00