Early Look

Thursday, February 24, 2022

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	-856.00	2.59%	32,210
S&P 500	-109.25	2.59%	4,112
Nasdaq	-426.50	3.16%	13,081

 

 

U.S. futures are sharply lower, with no lift overnight as S&P futures slide -2.5% or 106 points to 4,115 as Russia launches an attack on Ukraine. The Russian Rouble falls over 10% forcing Moscow to announce a currency intervention; Bitcoin down over 6% to $35K; gold prices surge over 3% or $60 to $1,973 an ounce and WTI crude spikes over 8% nearing the $100 per barrel level (Brent at $105 per barrel). Treasuries caught a flight-to-safety bid, with the yield on the 10-year note falling 12 bps to 1.86%. The euro falls 1.3% to 1.163 (52-week lows) against the U.S. dollar. Overall, another brutal day of selling pressure appears on tap as Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military operation in Ukraine, claiming it’s intended to protect civilians. Putin warned other countries that any attempt to interfere with the Russian action would lead to “consequences they have never seen.” He said the Russian military operation aims to ensure a “demilitarization” of Ukraine. Russian missiles rained down on Ukrainian cities and Ukraine reported columns of troops pouring across its borders into the eastern regions. President Joe Biden said his prayers were with the people of Ukraine and he and other Western leaders promised tough sanctions in response. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -1.8% to 25,970, the Shanghai Index sank -1.7% to 3,429, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -3.2% or 758 points to 22,901. In Europe, the German DAX is down over 5% or 740 points under 13,900, while the FTSE 100 tumbles over 3% to 7,250.

Economic Calendar for Today

·     8:30 AM ET          Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 235K

·     8:30 AM EST        Continuing Claims…est. 1.58M

·     8:30 AM ET          Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q4 end estimate…est. 7.0%

·     8:30 AM ET          GDP Consumer Spending Q4-E

·     8:30 AM ET          GDP Price Deflator, Q4-E…est. 6.9%

·     8:30 AM ET          GDP PCE Prices, Q4-E…est. 6.4%

·     8:30 AM ET          Core PCE Prices, Q4-E prelim…est. 4.9%

·     10:00 AM ET        New Home Sales MoM for January…est. 806K

·     10:30 AM ET        Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

·     11:00 AM ET        Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, for February

·     11:00 AM ET        Weekly DOE Inventory Data

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: ACIW, AGIO, AHCO, AMT, AMWD, BALY, CARS, CBRE, CCO, CCOI, CRC, DBRG, DEN, DISCA, DOCN, EDIT, ELAN, EME, EXLS, FCN, FOLD, GCI, GNK, GTLS, HEES, HMHC, HSC, IONS, IRM, KDP, LAUR, LAWS, LNG, LXP, MGPI, MRNA, MYGN, NAUT, NCLH, NEM, NKLA, PCRX, PEG, PLNT, PRFT, PWR, PZZA, RDUS, RUTH, SAGE, SEAS, SHLX, SHOO, SIX, SPTN, SRCL, STAR, TAST, TEN, TFX, TNC, TRGP, USPH, VCEL, W, WOW

·     Earnings After the Close: AAOI, ACMR, ADSK, ADUS, AEP, AES, AINC, AIRG, ALEX, ALRM, ALTR, AMBC, AMWL, ATSG, AXON, BOOM, BYND, CABO, CARG, CASA, CENX, CHE, CLNE, CODI, COIN, COLD, COLL, CUBE, CVNA, CYTK, DELL, EBS, EIX, ENV, EOG, ETSY, EVBG, FND, FOXF, FTDR, GDOT, GEVO, GLPI, GSBD, HHS, HTA, HURN, ICFI, INGN, INTU, IOVA, KAMN, KWR, LAW. LPSN, LSI, LTCH, MDRX, MGNX, MNST, MP, NVTA, OII, OPEN, OPK, OXY, PING, PLYA, RKT, SEM, SQ, SWCH, SWN, TALO, TMST, TPC, TVTX, TVTY, UHS, UNVR, UPLD, UVE, VAPO, VMW, VRAY, WATT, WSC, YMAB, ZEUS, ZS

 

Other Key Events:

·     Barclay’s Industrial Select Conference, 2/23-2/24, in Florida

·     Citigroup Healthcare Conference (virtual), 2/23-2/24

·     RBC Capital Global Environmental, Social and Governance Conference, 2/23-2/24

·     Wells Fargo Real Estate Securities Conference (virtual), 2/23-2/24

·     Wolfe Research Global Auto, Auto Tech & Mobility Conference (virtual), 2/23-2/24

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index tumbled -79.14 points, or 1.84%, to 4,225.62

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -464.36 points, or 1.38%, to 33,132.35

·     The Nasdaq Composite plunged -344.03 points, or 2.57%, to 13,037.49

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -36.08 points, or 1.82% to 1,944.09

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	7.65	99.75
Brent	8.26	105.10
Gold	62.15	1,971.15
EUR/USD	-0.0144	1.1162
JPY/USD	-0.30	114.71
10-Year Note	-0.119	1.858%

 

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Allbirds Inc. (BIRD) 4Q EPS ($0.09) vs est. ($0.09) on revs $97.2Mm vs est. $91.8Mm, yr-end inventory +80% to $107Mm; sees 1Q adj EBITDA ($11-13Mm) vs est. ($11Mm); guides FY revs $355-365Mm vs est. $353Mm and adj EBITDA ($9-13Mm) vs est. ($18.4Mm)

·     Bath & Body Works (BBWI) Q4 adj EPS $2.30 vs est. $2.27 on revenue $3.027B vs est. $3B; sees Q1 EPS $0.47-$0.55 vs est. $0.54, FY22 EPS $4.30-$4.70 vs est. $4.50; announced Andrew Meslow will step down as CEO effective May 12 due to health reasons and be replaced by Sarah Nash, the current Chair of the Board of Directors, on an interim basis while conducting a national search

·     Churchill Downs (CHDN) Q4 EPS $1.11 vs est. $1.10 on revenue $364.8M vs est. $362.5M

·     eBay inc. (EBAY) 4Q adj EPS $1.05 vs est. $0.99 on revs $2.6B vs est. $2.61B, qtrly GMB $20.7B -10%; guides 1Q adj EPS $1.01-1.05 vs est. $1.10; raises quarterly dividend 22%, announces additional $4B share buyback plan

·     Hertz (HTZ) Q4 EPS $0.91 vs est. $0.76 on revenue $1.95B vs est. $1.97B; revenue per user +31% vs 4Q19 due to a disciplined fleet management and a continued travel demand recovery; corporate liquidity $3.2B at qtr-end, including $2.3B in unrestricted cash

·     Herbalife Nutrition (HLF) Q4 adj EPS $0.57 while sales fell 6.6% to $1.3B; sees FY22 adjusted EPS $4.25-$4.75 and sees FY22 revenue growth 0%-6%; sees Q1 net sales growth of negative 10.0% to negative 4.0%

·     Marriot Vacations (VAC) 4Q adj EPS $2.38 vs est. $2.11 on revs $1.1B vs est. $1.1B; guides FY contract sales $1.675-1.775 and adj EPS $8.72-9.65 vs est. $10.00

·     RealReal (REAL) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.42) vs. est. loss (-$0.38); Q4 revs rose 67% to $145M vs. est. $135M; sees Q1 revs $130M-$140M vs. est. $134.3M; sees year revs $635M-$665M vs. est. $597.6M; sees 2022 GMV $2.0B-$2.1B

·     Rent-A-Center, Inc. (RCII) Q adj EPS $1.08 vs est. $1.61 on revs $1.2B vs est. $1.2B; guides 1Q revs $1.125-1.155B vs est. $1.23B and adj EPS $0.65-0.80 vs est. $1.53; guides FY revs $4.45-4.6B vs est. $5.27B and adj EPS $4.50-5.00 vs est. $7.04

·     Revolve Group (RVLV) Q4 EPS $0.39 vs. est. $0.18; Q4 revs $239.81M vs. est. $221.84M; record quarterly growth of 162,000 active customers during the fourth quarter of 2021. Total active customers grew to 1.8 million, an increase of 25% year-over-year

·     Sleep Number (SNBR) 4Q adj EPS $0.47 ex items vs est. $1.59 on sales $492 vs est. $601Mm; guides 1Q EPS $0.30-0.40 and FY EPS +10-15%

·     Six Flags (SIX) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.02) vs. est. loss (-$0.08); Q4 revs $317M vs. est. $268.07M; Q4 attendance at company’s parks was approximately 98% compared to comparable fiscal period in 2019; total guest spending per capita in q4 2021 increased 32% compared to q4 2019

·     Under Armour Inc (UAA) board has authorized repurchase of up to $500 mln of Under Armour’s outstanding Class C common stock, effective immediately

 

Energy

·     Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) Q4 adj EPS $0.83 vs. est. $1.02; Q4 revs $2.23B vs. est. $1.87B; sees FY22 capital investments $1.4B-$1.5B; delivered total equivalent production of 686 mboepd in q4

·     Sunnova Energy (NOVA) Q4 EPS ($0.13) vs est. ($0.26) on revenue $65M vs est. $65.7M; 2021 customer additions came in ~2K short of guidance range’s midpoint due to delays caused by Omicron in late December 2021 but are adding these 2K to its FY22 guidance (now sees 85K-89K customer additions from 83K-87K) while maintaining financial guidance

·     Whiting Petroleum (WLL) Q4 adj EPS $4.23 vs. est. $3.59; Q4 revs $473M vs. est. $335.86M; Production for Q4 averaged 92.8 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOE/d) which was consistent with the previous quarter of 92.1 MBOE/d. Oil production averaged 52.9 thousand barrels of oil per day (MBO/d) compared to 51.8 MBO/d in the third quarter 2021.

 

Financials

·     Extra Storage (EXR) 4Q core FFO/share $1.91 vs est. $1.87, same-store occupancy 95.3% end-of-year; sees solid storage fundamentals with anticipated same-store revs growth 11.5% and core FFO/share growth 13.2% at mid-points

·     Lemonade In. (LMND) Q4 in force premium $380M, revenue $41M vs est. $39.4M, gross earned premium $89.3M vs est. $88.3M, gross written premium $93.6M vs est. $94.9M; ended the year with $1.1B of cash, cash equivalents, and investment, expects to close Metromile acquisition in Q2; sees Q1 in force premium $405M-$410M, revenue $41M-$43M vs est. $43.8M, gross earned premium $92M-$94M vs est. $98M with FY22 guidance for in force premium $530M-$540M, revenue $202M-$205M vs est. $219.1M, gross earned premium $423M-$427M vs est. $478.5M

·     Offerpad Solutions Inc. (OPAD) Q4 EPS 5c vs est. (8c) on revenue $867.5M vs est. $680.5M, adj EBITDA $7.7M vs est. ($14.7M); sees Q1 homes sold 3,000-3,150, revenue $1.1B-$1.15B vs est. $836.3M, adj EBITDA $20M-$26M vs est. ($11.2M)

·     RE/MAX Holdings, Inc. (RMAX) 4Q adj EPS $0.60 vs est. $0.73 on revs $89.2Mm vs est. $89.2Mm; sees 1Q revs $88-92Mm vs est. $93.2Mm and RY revs $366-376Mm vs est. $369.1Mm

·     Voya Financial Inc (VOYA) files for mixed shelf of up to $2 bln

 

Healthcare

·     Arena Pharma (ARNA) Q4 EPS loss (-$2.54) vs. est. loss (-$2.26); phase 3 elevate UC 52 and 12 on course for q1 2022 topline data readout

·     BioMarin (BMRN) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.32), in-line with ests on revs $449.8M vs. est. $442.3M; sees FY22 revenue $2.05B-$2.15B vs. est. $2.14B; Full-year 2022 Guidance for VOXZOGO net product revenues increased to between $90 Million to $115 Million

·     Clover Health (CLOV) Q4 revenue $432M vs est. $408.1M; expects only a moderate increase in total spend in 2022 versus Q4 2021 run-rate; sees FY22 revenue $3B-$3.4B vs est. $2.62B, Membership Advantage membership growing +26-27% vs 2021

·     Evolent Health (EVH) Q4 adj EPS $0.08 vs. est. $0.01; Q4 revs $248.4M vs. est. $233.8M; sees Q1 revenue$280M-$295M, vs. est. $250.06M and sees 2022 revs $1.12b-$1.18B vs. est. $1.04B

·     Guardant Health, Inc. (GH) 4Q adj EPS ($0.69) vs est. ($1.15) on revs $108.1Mm vs est. $98.6Mm; sees FY revs $460-470Mm vs est. $471.25Mm

·     Insulet (PODD) Q4 EPS $0.42 vs. est. $0.32; Q4 revs $307.7M vs. est. $301.1M; guides Q1 revs up 13%-16% and year revs up 12%-16%; U.S. Omnipod revenue of $651.5M, an increase of 23.6%; international Omnipod revenue of $359.9M, an increase of 16.9%, or 11.6% in constant currency; drug Delivery revenue of $87.4M, an increase of 25.8%

·     iRhythm Technologies (IRTC) Q4 EPS loss ($1.10) vs. est. loss ($1.17); Q4 revs $81.8M vs. est. $78.27M; sees FY22 revs $400M-$410M vs. est. $403.93M; sees FY22 gross margins 67%-68%; sees FY22 adjusted EBITDA down $30M-$40M

·     Maravai LifeSciences Holdings (MRVI) 4Q adj EPS $0.45 vs est. $0.38 on revs $228.4Mm vs est. $208.9Mm; guides FY revs $920-960Mm vs est. $863.9Mm and adj EPS $1.70-1.84 vs est. $1.54

·     NuVasive (NUVA) Q4 EPS $0.40 vs. est. $$0.49; Q4 revs rose 3.5% to $302.1M vs. est. $299M; sees 2022 EPS $2.05-$2.35 vs. est. $2.31 and sales growth 5%-8%

·     1Life Healthcare (ONEM) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.50) vs. est. loss (-$0.53); Q4 revs $230.2M vs. est. $218.87M; guides Q1 revs $240M vs. est. $252.2M and year revs $1.05B-$1.09B vs. est. $1.07B

 

Industrials & Materials

·     Aluminium prices rallied to a record high as Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine sparked fears of sanctions that could cut supplies from major producer Russia and disrupt energy supplies needed to produce the metal; Gas prices have spurred since tensions escalated and led to output cuts in Europe, leaving consumers scrambling to secure metal; the three-month aluminium on the London Metal Exchange hit a record high of $3,449 a tonne

·     Ducommun (DCO) Q4 adj EPS $0.79, in-line with ests; Q4 revs $164.8M vs. est. $169.6M; says ended the year with a strong backlog as well of approximately $905 million, with gains driven by a recent uptick in commercial aerospace orders

·     Flowserve Corp. (FLS) 4Q adj EPS $0.45 vs est. $0.48 on sales $919.5Mm vs est. $956.1Mm; guides FY22 revs +7-9% vs est. +6.8% and adj EPS $1.70-1.90 vs est. $1.89

·     Ingersoll Rand (IR) 4Q adj EPS $0.68 vs est. $0.60 on revs $1.419B vs est. $1.419B; guides FY revs +11-13% vs est. +11.2%

·     Summit Materials (SUM) 4Q EPS $0.37 vs est. $0.26 on revs $553.4Mm vs est. $600.5Mm; guides FY adj EBITDA $535-565Mm vs est. $559Mm

 

Media & Telecom

·     Dish (DISH) Q4 EPS $0.87, in-line with estimates; Q4 revs $4.45B vs. est. $4.47B; net Pay-TV subscribers decreased approximately 273,000 in Q4; closed the quarter with 10.71M Pay-TV subscribers, including 8.22M DISH TV subscribers and 2.49M SLING TV subscribers

·     FuboTV (FUBO) Q4 revenue $230M vs est. $213.1M, hours streamed 404M +96% YoY; sees Q1 revs $232M-$237M vs est. $237.8M, FY22 revs $1.095B-$1.11B vs est. $1.086B

·     Live Nation (LYV) Q4 revenue $2.7B vs est. $2.05B; ticket sales were at a record pace across every metric with October, November and December being their top three months ever for ticketing gross transaction value, excluding refunded tickets with the fourth quarter and second half of the year also setting records for a quarter and six-month periods; through February, large venue shows are up 30% vs 2019, concert ticket sales +45% vs 2019, sponsorship and advertising pipeline up double-digits vs Feb

 

Technology

·     Booking.com (BKNG) Q4 adj EPS $15.83 vs. est. $13.68; Q4 revs $3.0B vs. est. $2.85B; Q4 gross travel bookings were $19.0B, an increase of 160% from the prior year quarter; room nights booked in Q4 increased 100% from the prior year quarter; expect there will still be periods where covid negatively impacts travel trends as we move through the year

·     ANSYS, Inc (ANSS) 4Q adj EPS $2.81 vs est. $2.71 on adj revs $661.4Mm vs est. $642.4Mm; guides 1Q adj revs $395-420Mm vs est. $400.9Mm and adj EPS $1.05-1.22 vs est. $1.23; sees FY adj revs $2.04-2.11B vs est. $2.09B and adj EPS $7.64-8.10 vs est. $7.92

·     Bandwidth (BAND) 4Q adj EPS $0.09 vs est. ($0.13) on revs $126Mm vs est. $118.1Mm; guides 1Q revs $125-127Mm vs est. $129.8Mm and adj EPS loss $0.07-0.11 vs est. $0.07; sees FY revs $547-555Mm vs est. $569.2Mm and adj EPS $0.03-0.09 vs est. $0.76

·     Five9 Inc. (FIVN) 4Q adj EPS $0.42 vs est. $0.36 on revs $173.6Mm vs est. $165.4Mm; guides 1Q revs $170-171Mm vs est. $170.6Mm and adj EPS $0.12-0.14 vs est. $0.21; guides FY revs $754.5-757.5Mm vs est. $748Mm and adj EPS $1.12-1.16 vs est. $1.12

·     Magnite, Inc. (MGNI) Q4 EPS $0.26 vs. est. $0.25; Q4 revs rose 97% to $161.3M vs. est. $140M; CTV Revenue ex-TAC Grows 52% in 2021 on a Pro Forma Basis

·     NetApp Inc. (NTAP) 3Q adj EPS $1.44 vs est. $1.28 on revs $1.61B vs est. $1.61B, qtrly billings $1.76B; guides 4Q net revs $1.635-1.735B vs est. $1.67B and adj EPS $1.21-1.31 vs est. $1.35

·     Skillz Inc. (SKLZ) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.25) vs. est. loss (-$0.15); Q4 revs rose 61% to $109M vs. est. $114.1M; qtrly average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) was up 3% year-over-year to $59; sees 2022 revenue $400M, below est. $550M

·     Universal Display (OLED) 4Q EPS $0.96 vs est. $1.01 on revs $146.2Mm vs est. $144.6Mm; guides FY revs approx $625-650Mm vs est. $666Mm; says approved 1Q cash dividend of $0.30/share up from $0.20/share

·     WM Technology, Inc (MAPS) Q4 EPS $0.53 vs. est. $0.04; Q4 revs $54.2M vs. est. $51.06M which represents a 39% y/y growth in U.S. business; added over 300 new paying clients during the fourth quarter and expanded our share; sees FY22 revs $255M-$265M vs. est. $250.91M