Early Look

Thursday, May 6, 2021

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	35.00	0.10%	34,153
S&P 500	5.25	0.12%	4,165
Nasdaq	29.50	0.22%	13,520

 

 

Stock futures are looking modestly higher across the board, attempting to erase the declines on Wednesday as market participants prepare for another busy day of earnings (coming into today roughly 80% of the S&P has reported with about an 85% EPS beat rate) and also await key employment data tomorrow with the month nonfarm payrolls report. For today, weekly jobless claims data is expected at 8:30 along with nonfarm productivity after a bout of weaker data yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at a record high along with an intraday high for the Dow Transports, but the market internals were generally weaker with more softness in the tech heavy Nasdaq (falling for a 4^th straight day). In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index jumped 518 points (1.8%) to 29,331 after being closed for three days on holiday, while the Shanghai Index slipped -5 points to 3,441 and the Hang Seng Index gained 219 points to 28,637. In Europe, the German DAX rises about 10 points to 15,185, while the FTSE 100 is also up about 10 points to 7,050.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index gained 2.93 points, or 0.07%, to 4,167.59

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 97.31 points, or 0.29%, to 34,230.34

·     The Nasdaq Composite dropped -51.08 points, or 0.37%, to 13,582.42

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -6.92 points, or 0.31% to 2,241.37

 

Events Calendar for Today

·     7:30 AM EST      Challenger Layoffs for April

·     8:30 AM ET         Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 540K

·     8:30 AM EST      Continuing Claims…est. 3.62M

·     8:30 AM EST      Nonfarm Productivity, prelim Q1…est. 4.3%

·     8:30 AM EST      Unit Labor Costs, prelim Q1…est. (-0.8%)

·     10:30 AM ET      Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: ADNT, ALE, AMRS, APRN, BCRX, BDX, BKI, BLD, BLDR, BLL, BV, CAH, CARS, CLNY, COMM, CORE, CNP, DLA, DLX, ECOM, ENTA, EVOP, EVRG, FOUR, GDP, GOGO, GOLF, GRA, HAIN, HBIO, HL, ICPT, IDCC, IIVI, IRM, IRWD, K, KTB, LAUR, LEE, MRNA, MYE, MUR, NCLH, NJR, NINE, NLSN, NTCT, NTLA, OGE, OPCH, PBH, PENN, PWR, PZZA, REGN, RETA, RGS, SEAS, STWD, SUN, TEN, THS, TMX, TRGP, UFS, USCR, VER, VIAC, W, WCC, WBT, WD, WFTLF, XRAY, ZTS

·     Earnings After the Close: AAOI, ACMR, ACOR, AGS, AIG, ALTR, AMBC, AMC, AMPH, ANGI, APLE, APPN, ATEC, AUTO, AVGR, AXON, BCC, BECN, BILL, BKD, BL, BRBR, BYND, CABO, CARG, CDK, CDXS, CGNX, CHUY, CLI, CLNE, CNXN, COLD, COLL, CSII, CSOD, CVNA, DBX, DDOG, EB, ECOR, ENTA, ENV, EOG, ET, EXEL, EXPE, FARM, FLDM, FLGT, FND, FNKO, FOXF, FTDR, GH, GPRO, GRPN, HCI, IHRT, IOVA, KURA, LNT, LOCO, LXRX, LYV, MCHP, MCK, MDU, MNST, MSI, MTD, MTX, MTZ, NET, NKTR, NNBR, NTRA, NYMT, OLED, OUST, PBPB, PBYI, PCTY, PK, PLNT, PODD, POST, PTON, QDEL, REG, REZI, ROKU, RPD, SEM, SFM, SHAK, SQ, STMP, SYNA, TDC, TRIP, TRUE, TWST, UIS, XLRN, Y, YELP, ZGNX, ZIOP

 

Other Key Events:

·     BMO Capital Global Reserve & Asset Manager Conference (virtual), 5/4-5/6

·     Credit Suisse eXtreme Services Conference (virtual), 5/6-5/7

·     Davidson Financial Institution Conference (virtual), 5/5-5/7

·     Goldman Sachs European SMID Symposium (virtual), 5/4-5/7

·     Dell Technologies (DELL) Virtual Event, 5/5-5/6

·     The Federal Reserve plans to issue its financial stability report on May 6th at 4 pm et.

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	-0.20	65.43
Brent	-0.15	68.81
Gold	6.25	1,793.10
EUR/USD	0.0044	1.2049
JPY/USD	-0.08	109.13
10-Year Note	-0.013	1.571%

 

 

World News

·     Fed’s Rosengren says higher inflation will be as temporary as last year’s toilet-paper shortage ‘; “We need to have a substantial improvement for us to begin tapering,” he said. “It is quite possible that we’ll see those conditions as we get to the latter half of the year. But right now, what we have is one really strong employment report, one quarterly GDP report. And so I think it’s premature.”

·     Fed’s Clarida said late yesterday the Fed is ‘a long way from our goals’ and tightening policy ‘; “We’re still a long way from our goals, and in our new framework, we want to see actual progress and not just forecast progress,” Clarida said.

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     At Home (HOME) rises on WSJ report that Hellman & Friedman nearing deal to buy the company as a deal could come in the mid $30’s https://on.wsj.com/33fXtJf

·     Academy Sports (ASO) 14M share Secondary priced at $32.00

·     SeaWorld (SEAS) Q1 revs $171.9M vs. est. $125.4M; adj Ebitda $25.2M vs. est. loss (-$30.9M); Q1 Attendance 2.2 Million Guests, Down 4.5%

·     Costco (COST) reported total comparable sales for Apr. +32.5%, estimate +30.3%; Apr. U.S. comparable sales excluding fuel, currencies +24.9%, vs. estimate +23.4%

·     Etsy Inc. (ETSY) Q1 EPS $1.00 vs. est. 88c; Q1 revs $550.6M vs. est. $529.77M; isn’t issuing guidance for full year 2021; Consolidated GMS was $3.1 billion, up 132.3% YoY; while Etsy marketplace GMS was $2.9B, up 144.1% YoY; GMS per active buyer for the Etsy marketplace on a trailing 12-month basis grew 20% YoY; sees Q2 revs $493M-$536M vs. est. $494.35M

·     Leslie Pools (LESL) 2Q adj EPS ($0.01) vs est ($0.09) on sales $192.4Mm vs est $150.5Mm; guides FY sales $1.25-1.27B vs est $1.2B, sees FY adj EPS $0.65-0.70 vs est $0.60

·     Marriott Vacations (VAC) Q1 adj EPS loss (49c) vs. est. loss (27c); Q1 revs $759M vs. est. $794.77M

·     Turtle Beach (HEAR) 1Q adj EPS $0.52 vs est $0.46 on revs $93.1Mm vs est $88Mm; guides revs $70Mm vs est $57Mm, sees 2Q adj EPS about ($0.07) vs est ($0.01);

·     Uber Inc. (UBER) 1Q EPS ($0.06) vs est ($0.54) on revs $2.9B vs est $3.28B; qtrly gr bookings $19.54B, qtrly trips 1.45B, qtrly delivery revs $1.74B, qtrly freight revs $199Mm, qtrly monthly active platform consumers 98Mm vs 103Mm

·     WW Inc. (WW) Q1 EPS loss (26c) vs. est. loss (24c); Q1 revs $332M, in-line with ests; said ended Q1 with 5.0 million subscribers, record Digital subscribers, and member retention remaining at an all-time high of over 10 months; says Q1 end of period digital subscribers up 16%

 

Energy

·     APA Corp. (APA) Q1 EPS 91c vs. est. 66c; Q1 revs $1.87B vs. est. $1.47B; qtrly production of 382,000 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day; qtrly adjusted production, which excludes Egypt noncontrolling interest and tax barrels, was 326,000 boe per day

·     Marathon Oil (MRO) Q1 adj EPS 21c vs. est. 11c; now targeting at least $500 mln of additional gross debt reduction, bringing total debt reduction target to at least $1 bln in 2021; q1 oil production of 172,000 net bopd and q1 oil-equivalent production of 345,000 net boed

·     SunRun (RUN) 1Q EPS ($0.12) vs est ($0.11) on revs $334.8Mm, qtrly customer adds 23,556; guides FY solar energy capacity installed growth +25-30% vs prior +20-25%

 

Financials

·     Allstate (ALL) Q4 EPS adj loss of ($6.11) vs. est. loss ($3.88); announced divestitures of life and annuity businesses generated $4b loss in 1q; gross catastrophe losses of $1.67b offset by $1.08b of reinsurance and subrogation recoveries

·     Fleetcor (FLT) Q1 adj EPS $2.82 vs. est. $2.73; Q1 revs $608.6M vs. est. $609.24M; boosts FY21 adjusted EPS view to $12.14-$12.70 (est. $12.49) and backs FY21 revenue view $2.6B-$2.7B

·     Green Dot (GDOT) 1Q adj EPS $0.83 vs est $0.87 on revs $393.5Mm vs est $361.3Mm; guides FY revs $1.27-1.29B vs est $1.25B, reaffirms FY adj EPS $2.06-2.15 vs est $2.13

·     Lincoln National (LNC) Q1 adj EPS $1.82 vs. est. $1.49; Q1 revenue $4.53B vs. est. $4.75B; as of march 31, 2021, book value per share including aoci, of $102.50, up 19%

·     MetLife (MET) Q1 adj EPS $2.20 vs. est. $1.53; Q1 revs $15.56B vs. est. $15.97B; qtr-end book value of $70.08 per share, down 3% from $72.62 per share; qtrly net investment income $5.31 bln vs $3.06 bln; qtrly premiums, fees and other revenues $12.35 bln vs $11.34 bln

·     PayPal (PYPL) Q1 adj EPS $1.22 vs. est. $1.01; Q1 revs $6.03B vs. est. $5.9B; sees FY21 adj EPS $4.70 vs. est. $4.57; sees FY21 revenue $25.75B vs. est. $25.71B; qtrly total payment volume (tpv) of $285 billion, growing 50%; qtrly total payment volume (tpv) of $285 billion, growing 50%; added 14.5 mln net new active accounts in qtr; ended the quarter with 392m active accounts

·     Redfin (RDFN) Q1 EPS loss (37c) vs. est. loss (34c); Q1 revs $268M vs. est. $253.27M; sees Q2 revs $446M-$457M vs. est. $348.3M; reached market share of 1.14% of U.S. existing home sales by value in Q1, an increase of 21 bps YoY

·     Rocket Companies (RKT) Q1 adj EPS 89c vs. est. 90c; Q1 revs $4.6B vs. est. $4.08B; sees Q2 gain on sale margins 2.65%-2.95%; sees closed loan volume of between $82.5B and $87.5B and net rate lock volume of between $81.5B and $88.5B

·     Tanger Outlets (SKT) 1Q core FFO/shr $0.40 vs est $0.36, consolidated portfolio occupancy 91.7%, blended avg rental rates -2.8% straight-line and -8.5% cash basis for all renewals; guides FY core FFO/shr $1.47-1.57 vs est $1.47

 

Healthcare

·     Becton Dickinson (BDX) Q2 adj EPS $3.19 vs. est. $3.04; Q2 revs $4.91B vs. est. $4.89B; backs FY21 adjusted EPS view $12.75-$12.85 (est. $12.84) and also backs FY21 revenue view up 12%-14%

·     Evolent Health (EVH) 1Q adj EPS ($0.01) vs est ($0.07) on revs $215.1Mm vs est $212.8Mm; guides 2Q revs $210-225Mm vs est $211.9Mm, sees FY revs $845-880Mm vs est $864.9Mm

·     Moderna (MRNA) said early human trial data shows that a third dose of either its current COVID-19 shot or an experimental new vaccine candidate increases immunity against variants of COVID-19 first found in Brazil and South Africa

·     NuVasive (NUVA) Q1 Non-GAAP EPS 37c on sales $271.2M

·     Sangamo Therapeutics Inc. (SGMO) files for potential mixed shelf offering

·     Sarepta (SRPT) Q1 EPS loss ($2.10) vs. est. loss ($1.77); Q1 revs $146.93M vs. est. $143.33M; net product sales for q1 2021 of $124.9 mln, a 24% increase over same quarter of prior year

·     Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM) 1Q EPS ($0.08) vs est ($0.16) on sales $141Mm vs est $122Mm; guides FY sales $625-640Mm vs est $610.5Mm, prior guide $600-615Mm; sees FY gr mgn approx 55%, sees adj EBITDA mgn 14-15%

·     Vanda Pharma (VNDA) Q1 EPS 15c on revs $62.7M; Q1 cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities was $378.2M as of March 31, representing an increase to cash of $65.8M a year ago; guides year revs $270M-$300M

 

Industrials & Materials

·     Albemarle (ALB) Q1 adj EPS $1.10 vs. est. 80c; Q1 revs $829.3M vs. est. $757.71M; backs both year EPS and rev outlook; expect to start approving wave 3 expansion projects during q2

·     CF Industries (CF) Q1 EPS 70c vs. est. 60c; Q1 revs $1.05B vs. est. $1.09B; ammonia net sales $206M vs. est. $220.2M; granular urea net sales $399M vs. estimate $411.2M

·     Hub Group (HUBG) 1Q EPS $0.51 vs est $0.45 on revs $920Mm vs est $935.7Mm; guides FY revs +mid-teens vs est +14.5%, sees FY EPS $3.20-3.40 vs est $3.12

·     Linde (LIN) raises guidance as now expects adjusted earnings per share of $9.60-$9.80, up 17-19% year-on-year – up from prior view of adjusted earnings per share up 11-13% to $9.10 to $9.30 for 2021

·     Republic Service Group (RSG) Q1 adj EPS 93c vs. est. 85c; Q1 revs $2.6B vs. est. $2.62B; raises FY21 adjusted EPS view to $3.74-$3.79 from $3.65-$3.73 (est. $3.72) and boosts FY21 adjusted free cash flow view to $1.35B-$1.4B from $1.3B-$1.375B

 

Media & Telecom

·     Fox Corp (FOXA) 3Q adj EPS $0.88 vs est $0.58 on revs $3.22B vs est $4B, tv segment revs $1.7B, cable network programming revs $1.47B

·     IAC Inc. (IAC) qtrly EPS 2c on revs $89.4M; 25% subscriber growth to nearly 1.6 mln in q1; 27% ARPU growth to $233 in q1; expect post-spin Vimeo to begin trading on Nasdaq under ticker symbol “VMEO” on May 25, 2021

·     ADTRAN (ADTN) 1Q21 operational results came in slightly ahead of expectations and EPS beat strongly on $3mn of investment and other income

·     American Tower (AMT) 9M share Secondary priced at $244.75

 

Technology

·     ANSYS (ANSS) 1Q adj EPS $1.12 vs est $0.84 on revs $372.1Mm vs est $352.7Mm; guides 2Q adj revs $414-445Mm vs est $430.7Mm, sees 2Q adj EPS $1.43-1.67 vs est $1.57; guides FY adj EPS $6.69-7.10 vs est $6.76

·     Bandwidth (BAND) 1Q adj EPS $0.30 vse st $0.01 on revs $113.5Mm vs est $108.4Mm; guides 2Q revs $116-117Mm vs est $110.9Mm, sees 2Q adj EPS $0.08-0.10 vs est ($0.01); guides FY revs $473.1-476.1Mm vs est $465.2Mm, sees FY adj EPS $0.47-0.55 vs est $0.10

·     Booking Holdings (BKNG) Q1 EPS loss ($5.26) vs. est. loss ($5.87); Q1 revs $1.1B vs. est. $1.17B; Q1 gross travel bookings were $11.9B, a decrease of 4% from the prior year, or approximately a 6% decrease on a constant-currency basis; room nights booked in Q1 decreased 20% from the prior year; says airline tickets booked in q1 was up 49% vs 2019, driven by strong growth at Priceline and by flight bookings at booking.com and Agoda

·     Fastly (FSLY) Q1 EPS loss (12c) vs. est. loss (11c); Q1 revs $84.85M vs. est. $85.08M; Net Retention Rate of 107%, compared to 115% in Q4 2020; total customer count increased to 2,207 from 2,084 in Q4 2020; CFO steps down, conducting an external search for its next CFO and has retained an executive search firm to assist in process

·     Fiverr (FVRR) Q1 EPS loss (1c) vs. est. loss (12c); Q1 revs $68.32M vs. est. $65.14M; active buyers as of March 31 grew to 3.8M, compared to 2.5M as of March 31, 2020, an increase of 56% YoY; raises FY21 revenue view to $302M-$308M from $277M-$284M (est. $288.7M) and guides FY21 adjusted EBITDA $19.5M-$24.5M

·     GoDaddy (GDDY) Q1 revs $901.1M vs. est. $885.2M; raises FY21 revenue view to $3.75B from $3.7B (est. $3.7B); raises full year revenue and unlevered free cash flow guidance; qtrly total bookings of $1,088.7 mln, up 14.5% year over year; names Michele Lau as Chief Legal Officer, Mark McCaffrey as CFO; approved incremental $775 mln share repurchase authorization

·     HubSpot (HUBS) 1Q adj EPS $0.31 vs est $0.29 on revs $281.4Mm vs est $263.8Mm; guides 2Q revs $293-297Mm vs est $278.3Mm, sees 2Q adj EPS $0.30-0.32 vs est $0.33

·     Ping Identity (PING) 1Q revs $68.9Mm vs est $62.8Mm; guides 2Q revs $65-67Mm vs est $63.7Mm, sees FY revs $264-272Mm vs est $263.2Mm

·     Q2 Holdings (QTWO) 1Q adj EBITDA $9.9Mm vs est $8.6Mm on revs $116.5Mm vs est $115.3Mm; guides 2Q adj revs $122-123.5Mm vs est $118.8Mm, sees FY adj revs $495-498Mm vs est $490Mm

·     Qorvo Inc. (QRVO) Q4 EPS $2.60 vs. est. $2.43; Q4 revenue $1.07B vs. est. $1.04B; sees Q2 EPS $2.45 vs. est. $2.43; sees Q2 revenue $1.07B-$1.1B vs. est. $1B and sees Q2 gross margin 50%; achieved record shipments of LB, MHB and UHB main path solutions and Wi-Fi 6E FEMs

·     Qualys Inc. (QLYS) 1Q adj EPS $0.74 vs est $0.68 on revs $96.8Mm vs est $95.2Mm; guides 2Q revs +11-12% vs est +10.2%, sees 2Q adj EPS $0.67-0.69 vs est $0.65; guides FY revs $402.5-404.5Mm vs est $400.4Mm, sees FY adj EPS $2.67-2.72 vs est $2.65;

·     Twilio (TWLO) Q1 adj EPS 5c vs. est. loss (9c); Q1 revs $590M vs. est. $532.94M; sees Q2 adj EPS loss (16c)-(13c) vs. est. loss (5c); sees Q2 revenue $591M-$601M vs. est. $577.1M; Operating expenses rose to $495.6M from $286.2M in the prior year’s first quarter

·     Xperi Holding (XPER) 1Q adj EPS $0.59 vs est $0.47 on revs $221.6Mm vs est $221.6Mm; reaffirms FY outlook

·     Zynga (ZNGA) Raises FY bookings forecast to $2.9 bln from $2.8 bln, slightly above estimate of $2.84 bln; also says it will buy mobile game ad network Chartboost for $250 mln; posts Q1 net bookings above estimates