Early Look

Thursday, May 7, 2020

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
DJ Industrials	298.00	1.27%	23,811
S&P 500	40.50	1.43%	2,874
Nasdaq	131.50	1.47%	9,083

 

 

U.S. stocks futures are higher after closing mixed on Wednesday, as the same hopes/fears continue to drive the market on a daily basis. Stocks have risen over the last week as several U.S. states and other countries worldwide begin to slowly re-open their economies following the mandated global shutdown to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. The reaction has been a sharp spike in oil prices, which up until yesterday had climbed 5-straight days on hopes of improving demand with travel restrictions slowly being lifted. On the flip side, economic data has continued to be abysmal, with today’s weekly jobless claims data expected to show another 3 million people filed for first-time unemployment figures, bringing the total to over 30MM the last 6-weeks. The figure tomorrow should be even more starling as the monthly non-farm payroll figures are expected to show over 21million people have lost their jobs and an unemployment rate to skyrocket to 16% (a far cry from record low 4.4% unemployment earlier this year). Investors are hoping the April, May figures will mark the bottom for data and that the economy can begin its turnaround as more and more stores begin to reopen, while at the same time, the coronavirus cases, deaths begin to slow. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 55 points to 19,674, the Shanghai Index gipped -6 points to 2,871 and the Hang Seng Index fell -156 points to 23,980. In Europe, the German DAX is up about 100-points to 10,700, while the FTSE 100 is up about 40 points to around the 5,900 level. In Fed speakers, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker are all scheduled to speak, and commentary could potentially shake-up markets. Today also marks another heavy dose of earnings results, with more than 350 of the 500 S&P companies having reported as of yesterday for the quarter.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index dropped -20.02 points, or 0.70%, to 2,848.42

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -218.45 points, or 0.91%, to 23,664.64

·     The Nasdaq Composite climbed 45.27 points, or 0.51%, to 8,854.39

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -10.50 points, or 0.82% to 1,263.01

 

Economic Calendar for Today

·     7:30 AM EST      Challenger Job Cuts YoY for April

·     8:30 AM EST      Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 3.0MM

·     8:30 AM EST      Continuing Claims…est. 19.8MM

·     8:30 AM EST      Nonfarm Productivity for Q1-P…est. (-5.5%)

·     8:30 AM EST      Unit Labor Costs for Q1-P…est. 4.5%

·     10:30 AM EST    Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

·     3:00 PM EST       Consumer Credit for March…est. $15.0B

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: AAN, ABC, AES, BDX, BHC, BLL, BMY, CFX, CNP, COMM, CORE, CRL, CTB, CTVA, DHC, DHR, ELAN, ENR, EQT, FIS, FOLD, GCI, HAIN, HES, HFC, HL, HLT, IRM, IT, ITCI, JBLU, LAMR, LSXMA, LXP, MNTA, MRNA, MUR, NRG, OGE, OTIS, PENN, PWR, RTX, SHLX, STWD, TGNA, TRGP, VG, VIAC, VIRT, WEX, XEL, YETI

·     Earnings After the Close: AAOI, AAXN, ACAD, ADT, AIV, AL, ALRM, APPN, ARI, ATHX, BECM BILL, BJRI, BKNG, CARG, CLNE, COLD, CTSH, DBX, DLR, DLX, DOX, DVAX, ED, ENLC, EOG, EQH, EVH, FISV, FLEX, FLT, GLUU, GPRO, HST, IHRT, LHCG, LNT, LPTH, LYV, MCHP, MDRX, MNST, MTD, MTG, MTW, NET, NUAN, NWSA, PBYI, PCTY, PEB, PLUG, PODD, POST, ROKU, SAGE, SAIL, SPWR, STMP, SYNA, TDC, TRUE, UBER, UPLD, VAC, VECO, WRI, YELP, ZG, ZIOP

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
WTI Crude	2.13	26.12
Brent	1.88	31.60
Gold	8.70	1,697.20
EUR/USD	0.0001	1.0796
JPY/USD	0.35	106.47
10-Year Note	+0.004	0.70%

 

 

World News

·     The Bank of England decided unanimously to keep interest rates at 0.1% and opted by a 7-to-2 margin to hold its quantitative easing program at £200 billion. Two members had pushed for a £100 billion increase, and the U.K. central bank said at the current rate of purchases it will reach the cap by the beginning of July

·     German industrial production dropped in March because of the coronavirus pandemic, having the largest decline since the beginning of the series in January 1991, as total industrial output–comprised of output in manufacturing, energy and construction–fell 9.2% in March

·     The Caixin China services purchasing managers index rose to 44.4 in April from 43.0 in March, Caixin Media Co. and research firm Markit said. Chinese services providers said both business activity and new work continued to fall in April as the coronavirus pandemic weighed on the sector’s performance. Total new business fell for the third straight month in April

·     China’s official nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 53.2 in April from 52.3 in March, the National Bureau of Statistics said last week.

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Brinker Int’l (EAT) priced 7M share offering at $18.25 per share

·     Costco (COST) April total comp sales (-4.7%) vs. est. (-6.5%); US April comp sales ex-gas, FX flat vs. est. (-2.7%); April sales fell 1.8% as skyrocketing e-commerce sales didn’t make up for a drop in foot traffic at its stores

·     Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) to replace Capri (CPRI) in the S&P 500 index

·     Etsy (ETSY) 1Q EPS $0.10 vs. est. $0.25 on revs $228.1Mm vs. est. $220.3Mm; says saw over 100% growth for Etsy Marketplace in April, sees 2Q revs +70-90% to $310-340Mm, sees 2Q GMS growth +80-100% to $2.0-2.2B

·     Lyft Inc. (LYFT) shares jump 20%; Q1 revs $955.7M vs. est. $829.6M; Q1 adj Ebitda loss ($85.2M) vs. est. loss ($201M); Q1 active riders were 21.1M vs. est. 22.7M and reported adj loss ($97.4M) vs. est. loss ($179.6M)

·     Peloton (PTON) Q3 EPS loss (20c)/$524.6M vs. est. loss (17c)/$486.62M; Q3 subscription revenue up 92% to $98.2M; Connected Fitness Product revenue was $420.2 million, representing 61% year-over-year growth and 80% of total revenue; Connected Fitness Product revenue was $420.2 million, representing 61% year-over-year growth and 80% of total revenue

·     Rent-A-Center (RCII) 1Q adj EPS $0.67 vs. est. $0.55, comps +1.7% vs. est. +1.2%; sees 2Q revs down by about 10% or less

·     Tesla (TSLA) is preparing to resume some car production at its Fremont, Calif., factory within the next week, potentially in violation of local coronavirus rules, the San Francisco Chronicle reported late Wednesday.

·     Wynn Resorts (WYNN) Q1 EPS loss ($3.54)/$953.7M vs. est. loss (72c)/$1.08B; saw a 64% decline in Wynn Palace operating revenue and 56% drop in Wynn Macau revenue during the quarter. Las Vegas revenue was down 19.3%; adjusted property EBITDA was -$5.3M vs. $206M consensus and $495M a year ago

 

Energy

·     American Waterworks (AWK) 1Q adj EPS $0.67 vs. est. $0.65 on revs $844Mm vs. est. $825.5Mm; sees FY adj EPS $3.79-3.89 vs. est. $3.85

·     Atmos Energy (ATO) 2Q EPS $1.95 vs. est. $1.92; reaffirms FY guidance, sees FY adj EPS $4.58-4.73, sees FY CAPEX $1.85-1.95B

·     Marathon Oil (MRO) suspending quarterly dividend and buyback program; Q1 revs other income $1.23B, +2.8% YoY; 1Q U.S. E&P crude oil & condensate average price per barrel $44.23, -19% QoQ; 1Q International E&P crude oil & condensate average price per barrel $36.88, -24% QoQ; 1Q production 422 mboe/d, +2.2% Qoq; 1Q cash from operating activities $701 million, +36% YoY

·     Pioneer Natural (PXD) said Q1 production up 13% YoY to 375,163 boe/d, with adjusted EPS $1.15 vs. est. $1.18 and $1.83 YoY; 1Q cash from operating activities $825 million, +37% YoY; revised total capital budget range of $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion; said quarterly production guidance is suspended

·     SolarEdge (SEDG) 1Q adj EPS $0.95 vs est. $1.23 on revs $431.2Mm vs est. $421Mm; sees 2Q revs $305-335Mm vs. est. $337.6Mm, sees 2Q gr margin 30-32%

 

Financials

·     EPR Properties (EPR) temporarily suspending its monthly cash dividend and its share repurchase program to conserve cash; Q1 FFO $1.14 vs. est. $1.11 on revs $150M vs. est. $153.4M; said collected only ~15% of April contractual base rent and mortgage payments; defers gaming investment of ~$1.0B and revises 2020 investment spending to include only previously committed investment spending totaling ~$100.0M

·     MetLife (MET) Q1 adj. EPS $1.58/$15.54B revs vs. est. $1.43/$16.38B; Q1 net investment income $3.06B; Q1 ROE +27.1% vs +10.3%YoY

·     PayPal (PYPL) 1Q net revs $4.62B vs. est. $4.72B, adj EPS $0.66 vs. est. $0.75, 1Q payment volume $191B vs. est. $193.2B; sees 2Q revs about +13%, sees 2Q adj EPS growth about 15-20%; withdraws FY rev & EPS guide

·     Square Inc. (SQ) 1Q gross payment volume +14% vs est. +15.6% to $25.7B (est. $26B), 1Q adj EBITDA $9Mm, EPS $0.02 vs est. $0.13, says strategically pulled back on some expenses

·     Two Harbors (TWO) Q1 net interest income rose 7.6% YoY to $88.2M; book value per share $6.96 vs. $13.83 YoY; core Q1 EPS 25c, down -49% YoY

·     UDR (UDR) Q1 AFFO 51c misses the 54c estimate; Q1 revenue $321.5M vs. est. $310.35M; said YoY combined Same-Store revenue, expense and NOI growth was 3.0 %, 1.7% and 3.5%, respectively; withdraws year outlook

·     Welltower (WELL) cuts its May 2020 dividend to 61c from 87c while authorizes share repurchase program for up to $1B of common stock through Dec. 31, 2021; Q1 FFO $1.02 in-line w ests on revs $1.26B vs. consensus of $1.28B and $1.27B in the year-ago quarter

·     Wex (WEX) Q1 adjusted EPS $1.81/$431.7M vs. est. $2.04/$424.31M; withdraws yearly guidance

 

Healthcare

·     Danaher (DHR) 1Q adj EPS cont ops $1.05 vs est $1.02 on sales $4.3B vs est $4.3B, announces CEO transition (Rainer Blair to succeed Thomas Joyce)

·     DexCom (DXCM) to replace Allergan (AGN) in the S&P 500 index

·     Neurocrine Bio (NBIX) Q1 EPS 82c on revs $237.1M vs. est. 56c/$222.9M; 1Q cash and other $1.01 billion, +93% y/y; 1Q net Ingrezza product sales $231.1 million, +69% YoY; sees combined full-year GAAP R&D and SG&A expenses $675m-$725m, vs. prior $740m-$770m

·     Quidel (QDEL) Q1 adjusted EPS $1.22/$174.7M vs. est. 98c/$158.08M; receives emergency use authorization from FDA for Lyra SARS-cov-2 assay

·     Tivity health (TVTY) said it’s exploring alternatives for nutrition business; engaged Lazard as the company’s financial advisor; reports Q1 EPS loss (12c) on revs $337.7M and withdraws guidance

 

Industrials & Materials

·     Albemarle (ALB) 1Q adj EPS $1.00 vs. est. $0.78 on net sales $738.8Mm vs est $758.5Mm; sees 2Q net sales $700-775Mm vs. est. $734.7Mm, sees 2Q adj EBITDA $140-190Mm vs. est. $185Mm

·     CF Industries (CF) Q1 EPS 31c/$971M vs. est. 26c/$925.62M; said expects positive global nitrogen demand driven by an increase in nitrogen-consuming planted corn and coarse grain acres in North America in 2020 compared to 2019; anticipates that capital expenditures for full year of 2020 will be in a range of $350 to $400 mln

·     Copa Holdings (CPA) 1Q adj EPS $1.75 vs. est. $1.77 on revs $595.5Mm vs. est. $597.5Mm, has postponed div payments for remainder of 2020, closed $350Mm converts offering on Apr 30

·     Hillenbrand (HI) Q2 adjusted EPS 53c/$649M vs. est. 39c/$647.7M; anticipates its fiscal third quarter performance will be lower year-over-year based on reduced global economic activity; suspends year guidance

 

Media & Telecom

·     ANGI HomeServices (ANGI) Q1 revs $343.6M, up 13% YoY, driven by 17% marketplace growth and 6% advertising & other growth due primarily to Angie’s List.; Q1 EPS loss (2c) in-line with estimates; 1Q adj. Ebitda $34.4M, was down 7% YoY; said Marketplace Service Requests increased 2% y/y to 5.9m and totaled 27.5m over the trailing 12 months; Marketplace Monetized Transactions were flat year-over-year at 3.6m and totaled 16.1m

·     Dish (DISH) Q1 EPS 13c/$3.22B vs. est. 57c/$3.15B; net Pay-TV subscribers decreased by approximately 413,000 in the first quarter, compared to a net decrease of 259,000 in the year-ago quarter.

·     IAC (IAC) Q1 adj Ebitda $171.5M beats $164.7M est; 1Q revenue $1.23B vs. est. $1.19B; sees closing separation with match by 2q end; plans to pursue $1.5b equity sale as part of deal; said April Vimeo total ending subscribers up 35% yoy

·     Fox Corp (FOXA) Q3 EPS 93c on revs $3.44B vs. est. 70c; Q3 ad revs $1.57B above views while 3Q Cable Network Programming revenue $1.47B and 3Q TV revenue $1.93B up 41% YoY; says impact of COVID-19 could have a material adverse effect on the Company’s business, financial condition or results of operations over the near to medium term

·     T-Mobile (TMUS) 1Q EPS $1.10 vs. est. $1.04 on revs $11.11B vs. est. $11.43B, adj EBITDA $3.7B vs. est. $3.48B; sees 2Q adj EBITDA $6.2-6.5B vs. est. $5.4B, sees 2Q postpaid net adds 0-150,000

 

Technology

·     Alteryx (AYX) Q1 EPS loss (24c) on revs $108.8M vs. est. (8c) and $105.3M; guides Q2 EPS loss (12c-18c) on revs $91M-$95M vs. est. loss of (6c) and $107.33M

·     ANSYS (ANSS) 1Q adj EPS $0.83 vs. est. $0.78 on adj revs $308.9Mm vs. est. $307.5Mm; sees 2Q adj EPS $1.01-1.33 vs. est. $1.40, sees adj revs $335-375Mm vs. est. $383.6Mm; sees FY adj EPS $5.61-6.23 vs. est. $6.18

·     Ceridian (CDAY) Q1 adjusted EPS 15c/$222.7M vs. est. 11c/$218.65M; said Dayforce revenue was $168.8M, an increase of 27.1%, or 27.3% on a constant currency basis; withdraws 2020 guidance, suspends quarterly outlook

·     Fortinet (FTNT) Q1 adj EPS $0.60 vs. est. $0.51 on revs $576.9Mm vs. est. $556.2Mm; sees 2Q adj EPS $0.64-0.66 vs. est. $0.61, sees 2Q revs $590-605Mm vs. est. $595.8Mm

·     GoDaddy (GDDY) Q1 EPS 24c/$792M vs. est. 17c/$789.86M; approves repurchase of up to $500M shares; guides Q2 revs in-line with ests at $790M

·     GrubHub (GRUB) Q1 adjusted EPS 0c/$363M vs. est. loss (4c)/$357.22M; Q1 business metrics highlights include: Active Diners: 23.9M, up 24% YoY from 19.3M; Daily Average Grubs: 516,300 up a modest 1% YoY; Gross Food Sales: $1.6 billion up 8% YoY

·     Ping Identity (PING) Q1 EPS loss (5c)/$61.4M vs. est. 3c/$59.76M; said ending ARR at March 31, 2020 was $230.0 million and represented a 21% increase compared to the same period last year; sees Q2 revenue $49M-$53M below consensus $62.5M and guides Q2 total ARR $231.5M-$234.5M

·     Twilio (TWLO) Q1 EPS 6c/$364.9M vs. est. loss (11c)/$330.76M; said had more than 190,000 Active Customer Accounts as of March 31, 2020, up 23% YoY;

·     Zynga (ZNGA) 1q adj rev $424.9m vs. est. $407.0m; 1q adj Ebitda $89.6m, vs. est. $76.1m; boosts year forecast for revs to $1.8b from $1.75b and guides Q2 revs $460M, vs. est. $418.4m; raises year adj Ebitda $360M, from $350M