Early Look

Tuesday, November 9, 2021

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	-25.00	0.07%	36,286
S&P 500	1.25	0.03%	4,695
Nasdaq	35.50	0.22%	16,363

 

 

Upside momentum continues with S&P futures edging higher, looking to make it a 9^th straight day of gains overall, and the Nasdaq Composite looking at an 11^th straight day of advances, with no signs of caution by investors heading into key inflation data today and tomorrow. The producer price index (PPI) for October is expected at 8:30 AM, and the consumer price index (CPI) tomorrow, but still no concerns exhibited in the bond market with the 10-year yield at its lowest level in 2-weeks around 1.45%, while gold prices are steady at $1,829 an ounce. The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high for the eighth consecutive session last night, extending the longest winning streak since 1997, as investors added the impact of $1 trillion in fresh government stimulus. That coupled with removed travel lockdowns, a strong earnings season, and positive vaccine news has boosted stocks over the last month. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -0.75% to 29.285, the Shanghai Index gained 0.24% to settle at 3,507 and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.2% to 24,813. In Europe, the German DAX is up 45 points to 16,090, while the FTSE 100 rise 0.2% to 7,313. Stocks keep pushing higher, making new all time highs each day the past week for the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Russell 2000.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index gained 4.17 points, or 0.09%, to 4,701.70

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 104.27 points, or 0.29%, to 36,432.22

·     The Nasdaq Composite edged higher 10.77 points, or 0.07%, to 15,982.36

·     The Russell 2000 Index surged 5.66 points, or 0.23% to 2,442.74

 

Events Calendar for Today

·     6:00 AM ET         NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Oct

·     7:45 AM ET         ICSC Weekly Retail Sales

·     8:30 AM ET         Producer Price Index MoM for October…est. 0.6%

·     8:30 AM ET         Producer Price Index YoY for Oct…est. 8.7%

·     8:30 AM ET         PPI Ex: Food & Energy MoM for October…est. 0.5%

·     8:30 AM ET         PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY for October…est. 6.8%

·     8:55 AM ET         Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales

·     4:30 PM ET         API Weekly Inventory Data

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: AFI, AGEN, APRN, BSY, CAH, CCO, CEVA, CNCE, CORR, CSII, CTG, DRNA, EBIX, ECOM, FSS, HAE, HAIN, HCI, HGV, HRMY, IGT, IIVI, ITCI, KPLT, MIDD, MRNS, MRSN, MSGE, OCGN, OSG, OWL, PLTR, PRPL, PRTY, SEAS, SSTI, STWD, SYY, TGI, VCEL, WHF, WKHS, WNC, WRK, XPEL

·     Earnings After the Close: ACHV, AIRG, ALTO, ARLO, ASH, AVID, AXON, CALA, CCXI, CLPT, CNNE, COIN, CPRX, CPSI, CRIS, DAR, DASH, DNUT, DOCS, DSP, DV, EGAN, ELY, EPAY, EPM, EVBG, FC, FGEN, FLGT, FUBO, G, GO, HCKT, HYLN, ID, INO, KODK, LAW, LGND, LPRO, MCFE, MNKD, MODN, NVTS, OCX, ORGO, PAR, PAY, PAYS, PLUG, POSH, PUBM, PXLW, REI, RNG, RPAY, SAIL, SCSC, SEER, SGMS, SILK, SKIN, TMDX, TWNK, TWOU, U, UPST, VERI, VRM, VZIO, WES, WYNN

 

Other Key Events:

·     Baird 51st Annual Global Industrial Conference, 11/9-11/12 (virtual)

·     Bank America 2021 Banking & Financials Conference, 11/9-11/10 (virtual)

·     Cowen 7th Annual Software Bus Tour, 11/9/110 (virtual)

·     Credit Suisse 30th Annual Healthcare Conference, 11/8-11/11 (virtual)

·     JPMorgan Global Consumer, Retail & Luxury Conference, 11/8-11/11 (virtual)

·     EEI Financial Conference, 11/7-11/9 (virtual)

·     REITWorld 2021 Annual Conference, 11/9-11/12 (virtual)

·     China PPI, CPI and M2 Money Supply for October

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	0.36	82.29
Brent	0.23	83.66
Gold	-1.00	1,829.20
EUR/USD	0.0001	1.1588
JPY/USD	-0.32	112.91
10-Year Note	-0.04	1.457%

 

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     AMC Entertainment (AMC) Q3 EPS ($0.44) vs est. ($0.53) on revenue $763.2M vs est. $708.3M; currently has liquidity availability over $1.8B, does not anticipate the need to borrow under revolver lines over the next 12 months

·     CarLotz (LOTZ) 3Q EPS ($0.03) vs est. ($0.21) on revs $68Mm vs est. $55.2Mm, will continue to open new hubs in 2022, though fewer than in 2021; says expects sequential qtrly improvement in retail units sold and retail GPU in 4Q

·     Clarus Corp (CLAR) 3Q adj EPS $0.50 vs est. $0.48 on sales $109Mm vs est. $106.1Mm; guides FY sales $362.5Mm vs est. $359.7Mm

·     Freshpet (FRPT) shares fell -14%; Q3 EPS (5c) vs est. 7c profit on revenue $107.6M vs est. $115.5M; now sees FY sales approx. $445M from prior guidance of sales exceeding $445M, adj EBITDA approx. $50M from prior view above $61M

·     Hertz (HTZZ) 44.5M share Secondary priced at $29.00

·     D.R. Horton (DHI) Q4 EPS $3.70 vs. est. $3.40; Q4 revs $8.1B vs. est. $7.94B; consolidated pre-tax profit margin improved 480 basis points to 21.3% and consolidated pre-tax income increased 63% to $1.7B; Q4 net sales orders down 33% to 15,949 homes; sees FY22 revenue $32.5B-$33.5B above consensus $32.22B

·     International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF) Q3 EPS $1.47 vs. est. $1.16; Q3 revs $3.07B vs. est. $2.61B; sees FY21 revs $11.55B vs. est. $10B; sees FY21 adjusted operating EBITDA margin 21%

·     Inter Parfums (IPAR) Q3 EPS $1.20 vs. est. $0.68; Q3 revs $263M vs. est. $262.69M; said our largest brands, notably Montblanc, Jimmy Choo, Coach, GUESS and Lanvin performed exceptionally well in the Q3 turning in gains of 26%, 40%, 98%, 27%, and 37%, respectively, as compared to 2019’s third quarter

·     Jack Henry Associates (JKHY) 1Q EPS $1.38 vs est. $1.32 on revs $488.1Mm vs est. $489.4Mm; guides FY adj revs $1.87-1.875B vs est. $1.91B, sees FY EPS $4.64-4.73 vs est. $4.59

·     Masonite (DOOR) 3Q adj EPS $1.99 vs est. $1.87 on revs $652Mm vs est. $675Mm; guides FY adj EPS $7.95-8.25 vs est. $8.13, sees FY sales +15-17% vs est. +18.6%

·     RealReal (REAL) Q3 adj EPS ($0.47) vs est. ($0.50) on revenue $119M vs est. $113.3M, adj EBITDA ($31.5M) vs est. ($36M), gross profit per order $94 vs $90 YoY, GMV $368M was +50% vs 2020 and +46% vs 2019, orders 757k (+38% YoY)

·     ThredUp (TDUP) 3Q EPS ($0.15) vs est. ($0.16) on revs $63.3Mm vs est. $61.8Mm, qtrly active buyers 1.4Mm and orders 1.3Mm (+14% and 28%, respectively); guides 4Q revs $69-71Mm vs est. $62.8Mm

·     Trex Company (TREX) Q3 EPS $0.64 vs. est. $0.58; Q3 revs $336M vs. est. $325.6M; guides Q4 revs $295M-$305M vs. est. $276.3M; Net income grew 73% to $74M; diluted earnings per share of $0.64, up 73%; EBITDA grew 76% to $108M; EBITDA margin of 32.2%

 

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     General Electric (GE) to split into three public companies – GE Aviation, GE Healthcare, and the combined GE Renewable Energy, GE Power, and GE Digital businesses to become three industry-leading, global, investment-grade public companies

·     Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. (AEIS) Q3 adj EPS $0.89 vs. est. $0.82; Q3 revs $346.1M vs. est. $341.52M; sees Q4 adj EPS 92c plus/minus 25c vs. est. $1.12; sees Q4 revs $355M plus/minus $20M vs. est. $373.09M.

·     Amyris, Inc. (AMRS) shares fell -25%; 3Q adj EPS ($0.27) vs est. ($0.15) on revs $48Mm vs est. $64.2Mm; sees FY revs $330-370Mm vs est. $391.6Mm; says supply chain challenges impacting near-term performance and growth trajectory

·     Cabot (CBT) Q4 adj EPS $1.01 vs. est. $1.03; Q4 revs $904M vs. est. $915.01M; Q4 Reinforcement Materials led the way delivering an increase in EBIT of $167 million while Performance Chemicals also recorded strong results; sees FY22 EPS $5.20-$5.60 vs. est. $5.52

·     Virgin Galactic (SPCE) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.32) vs. est. loss (-$0.28); Q3 revs $2.6M vs. est. $1.6M; commercial service on track for q4 2022; strong ticket sales at updated pricing of $450,000 per seat; cash position remains strong at approximately $1.0 billion

 

Financials

·     CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) Q3 adj FFO/share $0.48, adj EPS $0.28 vs est. $0.18, revenue $471.2M vs est. $467.1M, adj EBITDA $100.9M vs est. $85.3M; is not providing full-year guidance due to uncertainties surrounding the resurgence of Covid-19 caused by the Delta variant and the administration’s executive actions and policies related to immigration and criminal justice, but will provide FY22 guidance in February when reporting 4Q21 results

·     Cohen & Steers, Inc. (CNS) preliminary assets under management of $101.6 billion as of October 31, 2021, an increase of $4.3 billion from assets under management at September 30, 2021. The increase was due to net inflows of $138 million and market appreciation of $4.4 billion, partially offset by distributions of $203 million.

·     First Advantage (FA) files to sell 15M shares of common stock for holders

·     Lemonade Inc. (LMND) will acquire Metromile in an all-stock transaction that implies a fully diluted equity value of approximately $500 million, or just over $200 million net of cash

·     PayPal (PYPL) Q3 non-GAAP EPS $1.11 vs. est. $1.07; Q3 revs $6.18B vs. est. $6.23B; Q3 total payment volume of $310B, growing 26%, and 24% on an FX-neutral basis; 4.9 billion payment transactions in qtr, up 22%; expects to add about 55Mm NNAs, including about 3 million active accounts from the acquisition of Paidy; 13.3M NNAs added in qtr , bringing total active accounts to 416 million, up 15%; expects FY TPV growth to be in the range of about 33%-34% at current spot rates and about 31%-32% on an FX basis

·     Robinhood (HOOD) said a third party had obtained access to email addresses of about 5 mln of its customers, while full names for a different group of nearly 2 mln people in an incident, which took place on Nov. 3; said 310 people had more personal information, including names, birth, dates and zip codes compromised, while 10 customers had more extensive account details revealed

·     Third Coast Bancshares (TCBX) 3.5M share IPO priced at $25.00

 

Healthcare

·     Alkermes (ALKS) announced that it received notices of partial termination in respect of two license agreements with Janssen Pharmaceutica N.V., a subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson

·     Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc (ACAD) 3Q EPS ($0.09) vs est. ($0.26) on sales $131.6Mm vs est. $127.8Mm, says narrows FY Nuplazid sales guide to $480-500Mm

·     Castle Biosciences (CSTL) 3Q EPS ($0.47) vs est. ($0.41) on revs $23.5Mm vs est. $23Mm; says on track to achieve FY total revs guide of $89-93Mm vs est. $91.9Mm

·     Clover Health (CLOV) Q3 revs $427.2M vs est. $413.1M, adj EBITDA ($102.3M) vs est. ($99.5M); sees FY revs $1.42B-$1.47B vs est. $1.44B

·     Curaleaf holdings (CURLF) Q3 revenue $317M vs est. $328.3M, adj EBITDA $71M vs est. $92.1M; remains on track to generate revenue within lower end of $1.2B-$1.3B annual guidance range; said the acquisition of Tryke Companies reported earlier today bolsters its position in NV, AZ, UT and will be immediately accretive to margins and cash flow

·     Fluidigm Corp (FLDM) 3Q EPS ($0.18) vs est. ($0.22) on revs $28.5Mm vs est. $30Mm; says undertaking review of various options including with regard to strategic alternatives

·     Invitae Corporation (NVTA) Q3 adj EPS ($0.81) vs est. ($0.71) on revenue $114.4M vs est. $126.5M driven by billable volume 296k (+89% YoY); now sees FY revenue $450M-$475M, from $475M-$500M and below est. $484.5M

·     Mirati Therapeutics, Inc. (MRTX) 3Q EPS ($1.55) vs est. ($2.89) on revs $71.8Mm

·     Nevro Corp. (NVRO) Q3 EPS loss ($1.44) vs. est. loss (-$0.87); Q3 rev $93.2M vs. est. $91.59M; sees Q4 revs $94M-$98M

·     Oak Street Health, Inc. (OSH) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.49) vs. est. loss (-$0.42); Q3 revs $388.7M vs. est. $356.7M; The Company cared for approximately 100,500 risk-based patients, representing 76% of its total patients; adjusted EBITDA was $(64.3M), compared to $(22.8M) YoY

·     SI-BONE (SIBN) Q3 EPS ($0.48) vs est. ($0.42) on revenue $22.3M vs est. $22.5M, lowered FY21 revenue view to $89M-$90M from $92M-$94M (vs est. $92.7M) as uncertainty surrounding Covid-19’s impact on elective procedures and healthcare infrastructure remains

·     Shockwave Medical (SWAV) Q3 EPS $0.05 vs. est. loss (-$0.06); Q3 revs $65.2M vs. est. $61.2M; sees FY21 revenue $227M-$228M vs. est. $223.43M, which represents 235% to 236% growth YoY

·     SmileDirectClub, Inc. (SDC) shares fall -23%; 3Q EPS ($0.23) vs est. ($0.13) on revs $138Mm vs est. $$181Mm; guides FY revs $630-650Mm vs est. $757Mm

·     Tactile Systems (TCMD) shares fell -12%; 3Q EPS ($0.17) vs est. $0.12 on revs $52.5Mm vs est. $57.4Mm; sees FY revs +9-10% or $203.5M-$206M from $216.3M-$224.5M, below est. +18.7%

·     Merck (MRK) said the U.S. government will buy 1.4 million additional courses of their COVID-19 pill, molnupiravir, for about $1 bln and that the U.S. has now committed to purchase a total of about 3.1 million courses of molnupiravir for about $2.2 billion

·     Haemonetics (HAE) Q2 adj EPS $0.60 vs. est. $0.61; Q2 revs $239.9M vs. est. $241.4M; lowers FY22 adj EPS view to $2.40-$2.65 from $2.60-$3.00 and narrows its FY22 revenue view to up 13%-17% from up 13%-18%

 

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Bandwidth Inc. (BAND) Q3 adj EPS $0.25 vs. est. $0.08; Q3 revs $130.6M vs. est. $125.3M; guides Q4 EPS loss (15c-11c) vs. est. loss (-$0.01); sees Q4 revs $115.7M-$120.7M vs. est. $125.5M

·     3D Systems (DDD) 3Q adj EPS $0.08 vs est. $0.05 on revs $156.1Mm vs est. $144.8Mm; guides FY adj gr mgn 41-43% vs est. 42.7%

·     Five9 Inc. (FIVN) 3Q adj EPS $0.28 vs est. $0.23 on revs $154.3Mm vs est. $146.8Mm; guides 4Q revs $164.5-165.5mm vs est. $157.8Mm, sees 4Q adj EPS $0.36-0.37 vs est. $0.34; sees FY revs $$600.5-601.5Mm vs est. $585.2Mm and adj EPS $1.09-1.10 vs est. $1.02

·     Instructure Holdings, Inc. (INST) 3Q EPS ($0.10) vs est. $0.14 on revs $107.2Mm vs est. $101.1Mm; sees 4Q revs $106.9-107.9Mm vs est. $104.1Mm; guides FY revs $401.7-402.7Mm vs est. $397.4Mm, sees FY adj EBITDA $143.6-144.6Mm vs est. $130Mm

·     Luminar Technologies, Inc. (LAZR) shares rise 50%; said at the NVIDIA GTC conference that its lidar solution has been selected to be part of the sensor suite in the NVIDIA DRIVE Hyperion autonomous vehicle reference platform. This AI vehicle computing platform accelerates development of autonomous consumer vehicles with planned production starting in 2024.

·     New Relic (NEWR) Q2 adj EPS loss (10c) vs. est. loss (13c); Q2 revs $196M vss. Est. $182.21M; cuts FY22 adj EPS loss view to (60c)-(54c) from (52c)-(49c) while boosts FY22 revenue view to $778M-$782M from $730M-$735M (est. $736.8M)

·     National CineMedia (NCMI) Q3 EPS loss (19c) vs. est. loss (13c); Q3 revs $31.7M vs. est. $41.24M; Q3 adjusted OIBDA improved to negative $8.2 million for the third quarter of 2021 from negative $11.2 million for the third quarter of 2020

·     Roblox (RBLX) shares rise 29%; Q3 EPS (13c) vs est. (14c) on bookings $637.8M vs est. $636.5M, revenue $509.5M, avg DAUs 47.3M vs est. 46.6M, hours engaged 11.2B (+28% YoY), avg booking per DAU $13.49

·     Sanmina (SANM) Q4 adj EPS $0.95 vs. est. $0.99; Q4 revs $1.64B vs. est. $1.7B; sees Q1 adj EPS 90c-$1.00 vs. est. $1.01; sees Q1 revs $1.6B-$1.7B below consensus $1.76B

·     Square Space (SQSP) Q3 EPS 4c vs est. 14c on revenue $201M vs est. $205.2M; sees Q4 revenue $203M-$206M vs est. $205.2M, raised annual revenue forecast to $780M-$783M from $772M-$780M (est. $778.4M) and unlevered FCF to $117M-$122M from $102M-$116M

·     TripAdvisor (TRIP) 3Q adj EPS $0.16 vs est. $0.24 on revs $303Mm vs est. $304.4Mm; avg monthly unique users on branded websites rose to about 76% of 2019 comparable period; says CEO will step down during 2022

·     Vuzix Corporation (VUZI) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.13), in-line with ests; Q3 revs $3.02M vs. est. $3.79M; General and Administrative expense for the three months ended September 30, 2021 was $3.1 million versus $1.6 million for the comparable 2020 period

·     Xperi Holding Corporation (XPER) 3Q adj EPS $0.53 vs est. $0.34 on res $219.4Mm vs est. $215.4Mm; guides FY revs $870-890Mm vs est. $882.2Mm

·     Zynga (ZNGA) 4Q EPS ($0.04) vs est. $0.07 on revs $704.7Mm vs est. $666Mm, qtrly bookings $668Mm +6%, average mobile DAUs 38Mm +21%, qtrly avg mobile MAUs 183Mm +120%; sees FY revs $2.78B vs est. $2.81B, sees FY bookings $2.814B