Early Look

Friday, October 29, 2021

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	-45.00	0.13%	35,568
S&P 500	-22.25	0.49%	4,565
Nasdaq	-139.50	0.88%	15,625

 

 

After trading to all-time highs Thursday for the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq Composite (and a 2% gain for the Russell 2000 as well) on strong earnings as well as positive developments on the spending bill in Washington, futures are pulling back. Shares of tech and retail giants Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) are lower by 3% and 4% respectively after AAPL’s iPhone and overall revs miss for the quarter and AMZN drops on a Q3 revs miss, lower op income and lower guidance, sending Nasdaq Futures lower by about 1%. Investor sentiment is also starting to turn cautious amid the steady stream of corporate warnings on inflationary pressures and supply chain woes. Big day of inflation data with the personal spending and income for Sept and PCE inflation data expected at 8:30 AM. The 10-year Treasury yield is up around 1.61%, recovering off mid-week lows around the mid 1.5% level. Bitcoin prices are lower holding around the $60K level while oil futures are on track to snap their 8-week winning streak. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rises 0.25% to 28,890, the Shanghai Index gains 0.8% to 3,547, and the Hang Seng Index falls =0.7% to 25,377. In Europe, the German DAX is lower -1.2% to 15,500, while the FTSE 100 down -0.5% at 7,210.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index gained 44.74 points, or 0.98%, to 4,596.42

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 239.79 points, or 0.68%, to 35,730.48

·     The Nasdaq Composite surged 212.28 points, or 1.39%, to 15,448.12

·     The Russell 2000 Index advanced 45.49 points, or 2.02% to 2,297.98

 

Events Calendar for Today

·     8:30 AM ET         Personal Income for September…est. (-0.2%)

·     8:30 AM ET         Personal Spending for September…prior +0.4%

·     8:30 AM ET         PCE Price Index MoM for September

·     8:30 AM ET         PCE Price Index YoY for September

·     8:30 AM ET         Core PCE Price Index MoM for September…est. +0.2%

·     8:30 AM ET         Core PCE Price Index YoY for September…est. +3.7%

·     9:45 AM ET         Chicago PMI for October…est. 63.5 (prior 64.7)

·     10:00 AM ET      University of Michigan Confidence, Oct-F…est. 71.4

·     1:00 PM EST       Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: ABBV, AON, B, BAH, CERN, CHD, CHTR, CL, COWN, CVX, DCOM, HUN, IRMD, LHX, PIPR, POR, PSX, PSXP, RUTH, WY, XOM

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	0.34	83.15
Brent	0.37	84.69
Gold	-2.95	1,795.95
EUR/USD	-0.0029	1.1652
JPY/USD	0.19	113.76
10-Year Note	+0.041	1.61%

 

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Amazon.com (AMZN) shares fall -3%; 3Q EPS $6.12 vs est. $8.92 on sales $110.8B vs est. $111.6B, AWS net sales $16.11B; guides 4Q sales $130-140B vs est. $142B; sees q4 operating income is expected to be between $0 and $3.0 bln, compared with $6.9 bln in q4 2020; in q4, expect to incur several bln dollars of additional costs in consumer business as we manage through labor supply shortages

·     Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 EPS $1.00 vs. est. $0.99; Q4 revs rose 31% to $8.1B vs. est. $8.21B; commits to $20 bln of share repurchases and dividends over next three years; qtrly active Starbucks rewards membership in U.S. approaches 25 mln, up 28% YoY; qtrly comp store sales of 17% globally; qtrly international comp store sales grew 3%; qtrly comp store sales of 22% in U.S.; comp store sales decreased 7% in China

·     Columbia Sportswear (COLM) 3Q EPS $1.52 vs est. $1.33 on revs $804.7Mm vs est. $862Mm; qtrly inventory -7%; guides FY net sales +21.5-23% vs prior +25-26.5% and est. +26.5%, sees FY EPS $4.55-4.80 vs est. $4.65; says believe can achieve mid-teens or better net sales growth in 2022 vs est. +10%

·     Decker’s Outdoors (DECK) 2Q EPS $3.66 vs est. $4.00 on sales $721.9Mm vs est. $765.9Mm, comps +1%; sees FY EPS $14.15-15.15 vs est. $15.15; Gross margin was 50.9% compared to 51.2% for the same period last year;

·     Decker’s also said: UGG(R) brand net sales for the second quarter increased 8.0% to $448.4 million compared to $415.1 million for the same period last year. HOKA(R) brand net sales for the second quarter increased 47.0% to $210.4 million compared to $143.1 million for the same period last year. Teva(R) brand net sales for the second quarter increased 4.0% to $28.8 million compared to $27.7 million for the same period last year.

·     Frontdoor (FTDR) 3Q EPS $0.89 vs est. $0.68 on revs $471Mm vs est. $476.5Mm; guides 4Q revs $330-340Mm vs est. $347.7Mm, sees FY revs $1.59-1.6B vs est. $1.62B

·     Mohawk Industries (MHK) Q3 adj EPS $3.95 vs. est. $3.81; Q3 revs $2.817B vs. est. $2.9B; guides Q4 EPS $2.80-$2.90 vs. est. $3.23

·     Skecher’s (SKX) Q3 EPS $0.66 vs. est. $0.73; Q3 sales rose 19.2% to $1.55B vs. est. $1.63B; guides Q4 EPS $0.28-$0.33 vs. est. $0.34 and year EPS view cut to $2.45-$2.50 from $2.55-$2.65; cuts FY21 revenue view to $6.15B-$6.2B from $6.15B-$6.25B; Direct-to-Consumer sales grew 44.1% and wholesale sales grew 10.5%

·     SkyWest (SKYW) 3Q adj EPS $1.45 vs est. $0.70 on revs $745Mm vs est. $687.7Mm; says experienced a severe outage in October resulting in about 1,700 flight cancelations and expect may impact 4Q results from $15-20Mm pre-tax;

·     Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Q3 EPS $0.75 vs est. $0.81 on revenue $869.9M vs est. $869.4M; comp sales +30.2% vs 3Q20, +22.3% vs 2019, partially offset by higher food/beverage costs with commodity inflation 13.9% driven by higher beef prices; sees positive comp sales in FY22, commodity cost inflation in high-teens in 1H22

 

Energy

·     Chevron (CVX) Q3 adj EPS $2.96 vs. est. $2.21; Q3 revs $43B vs. est. $40.52B; posted net income of $6.11B vs. a loss of $207M a year ago; said Q3 average sales price per barrel of crude oil and natural gas liquids was $58, vs $31 a year earlier

·     Dril-Quip (DRQ) 3Q EPS ($0.31) vs est. ($0.14) on revs $83Mm vs est. $85.6Mm, sees 4Q bookings at high end of $40-60Mm range (unchanged from prior view)

·     First Energy (FE) Q3 adj EPS $0.82 vs. est. $0.79; Q3 revs $3.1B in-line with ests; raises FY21 adj EPS view to $2.55-$2.65 from $2.40-$2.60 (est. $2.54)

·     SM Energy (SM) Q3 EPS $0.69 vs. est. $0.13; Q3 revs $760.24M vs. est. $510.61M; Q3 Production was 14.3 MMBoe (155.8 MBoe/d) and was 56% oil; the Company is increasing guidance for 2021 production volumes to 49.5-50.0 MMBoe (135.6-137.0 MBoe/d)

 

Financials

·     Hartford Financial (HIG) Q3 core EPS $1.26 vs. est. $0.86; Net income ROE for the trailing 12-month period ended Sept. 30, 2021 was 12.3% and core earnings ROE* for the same period was 12.5%; the Commercial Lines combined ratio was 101.2 in third quarter 2021 with an underlying combined ratio* of 87.2, a 6.5-point improvement YoY

·     LPL Financial (LPLA) Q3 EPS $1.77 vs est. $1.75 on revenue $2.02B vs est. $2.05B; total advisory and brokerage assets $1.13 trillion (+40% YoY), organic net new assets $27B (+10% annualized) in the qtr, $110B over past 12-months (+14% annualized)

·     B. Riley Financial (RILY) announced a $4 dividend, composed of a $3 special one-time payout and a doubling of its regular quarterly dividend to $1

 

Healthcare

·     4D Molecular (FDMT) 4.75M share Secondary priced at $25.00

·     AirSculpt Technologies (AIRS) 7M share IPO priced at $11.00

·     Aura Biosciences (AURA) 5M share IPO priced at $14.00

·     Entrada Therapeutics (TRDA) 9.075M share IPO priced at $20.00

·     Sonendo (SONX) 7.8M share IPO priced at $12.00

·     Valneva (VALN) 5.5M share Secondary priced at $39.42

·     Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) Q3 adj EPS in-line at $0.72; Q3 revs $587.6M vs. est. $590.9M; Q3 same facility revenue increased 7.9% YoY, including an increase in revenue per patient day of 5.6% and an increase in patient days of 2.2%; same facility adjusted EBITDA margin was 29.0%; narrowed 2021 revenue to $2.295B-$2.315B vs. est. $2.31B

·     CareDX (CDNA) Q3 adj EPS 7c vs est. 1c on revenue $75.6M vs est. $74M; raised FY21 revenue forecast to $290M-$293M from $280M-$290M

·     DaVita Inc. (DVA) 3Q EPS $2.36 vs est. $2.25 on revs $2.94B, says US dialysis treatments averaged 94,509/day; guides FY adj EPS $8.80-9.15 vs est. $9.19

·     Dexcom (DXCM) Q3 EPS $0.71 vs. est. $0.63; Q3 revs $650.2M vs. est. $617.82; Based on the strong third quarter results, Dexcom is increasing its guidance for fiscal year 2021 revenue, Non-GAAP gross profit margin, Non-GAAP operating margin, and Adjusted EBITDA margin

·     Gilead Sciences (GILD) 3Q adj EPS $2.65 vs est. $1.75 on revs $7.4B vs est. $6.3B; guides FY total product sales $26-26.3B vs est. $25.14B (sees $21.5B ex Veklury); guides FY adj EPS $7.90-8.10 vs est. $7.19

·     Nextgen health (NXGN) 2Q adj EPS $0.29 vs est. $0.23 on revs $149.3Mm vs est. $143.4Mm; guides FY revs $584-590Mm vs est. $582.4Mm, sees FY adj EPS $0.90-0.96 vs est. $0.93; says may repurchase up to $60Mm of its outstanding shares through March 2023

·     PTC Therapeutics (PTCT) Q3 EPS loss ($1.89) vs. est. loss ($1.40); Q3 revs $139M vs. est. $126.44M; raises FY21 rev view for DMD franchise to $400M-$420M from $370M-$390M and narrows R&D and SG&A expenses to $815M-$835M from $825M-$855M.

·     ResMed (RMD) 1Q EPS $1.39 vs est. $1.36 on revs $904Mm vs est. $860.9Mm

·     Seagen (SGEN) Q3 EPS ($1.61) vs est. $(0.58) on revenue $424.1M vs est. $383.1M, total net product sales $366.5M (+37% YoY)

·     Stryker (SYK) Q3 adj EPS $2.20 vs. est. $2.28; Q3 revs $4.16B vs. est. $4.23B; Q3 organic net sales increased 4.5%; raises FY21 adjusted EPS view to $9.08-$9.15 from $8.80-$9.20 (est. $9.30); said now expect 2021 organic net sales growth to be in the range of 7% to 8% from 2019

 

Industrials & Materials

·     Eastman Chemical (EMN) 3Q adj EPS $2.46 vs est. $2.46 on revs $2.72B vs est. $2.6B; guides FY EPS $8.80-9.00 vs est. $9.09, sees FY FCF about $1.1B; says implementing price increases across specialty product lines to offset higher costs, expect to be caught up in early 2022

·     Ecolab (ECL) to acquire Purolite, a leading global provider of fast-growing, high value separation and purification solutions to life sciences and critical industrial markets; Ecolab to pay approximately $3.7 billion in cash

·     Fortive (FTV) Q3 adj EPS $0.66 vs. est. $0.65; Q3 revs $1.3B vs. est. $1.32B; raises FY21 adj EPS view to $2.70-$2.75 from $2.65-$2.75 (est. $2.72); said Delivered significant margin improvement, strong adjusted operating margin expansion and robust cash flow growth

·     Hub Group (HUBG) Q3 EPS $1.28 vs est. $1.10 on in-line revs $1.08B; raises FY21 EPS $3.90-$4 from $3.50-$3.70 vs est. $3.66, still sees rev growth in the high-teens

·     Huntington Ingalls (HII) 2Q adj EPS $1.71 vs est. $1.17 on revs $537Mm vs est. $375.6Mm

·     L3Harris Technologies (LHX) raises FY21 adjusted EPS view to $12.85-$13.00 from $12.80-$13.00 and lowers FY21 revenue view to approximately $17.9B from $18.1B-$18.5B

·     Mercer Int’l (MERC) 3Q EPS $1.04 vs est. $0.83 on revs $469.7Mm vs est. $452.9Mm

·     Polymetal International PLC (POLY) 2Q adj EPS $0.77 vs est. $0.56 on revs $419Mm vs est. $428.4Mm; guides FY adj EPS $2.30-2.70 vs est. $3.10, sees FY revs $1.675-1.725B vs est. $1.8B

·     Republic Service (RSG) 3Q adj EPS $1.11 vs est. $1.05 on revs $2.93B vs est. $2.84B; guides FY adj EPS $4.10-4.13 from prior $4.00-$4.05 and vs est. $4.05

·     Terex Corp. (TEX) 3Q EPS $0.67 vs est. $0.72 on sales $993.8Mm vs est. $1.0B; guides FY sales $3.85B vs est. $3.86B, sees FY EPS $2.75-2.85 vs est. $2.82

·     Werner Enterprise (WERN) Q3 EPS $0.94 vs. est. $0.95; Q3 revs $702.9M vs. est. $700.8M

·     U.S. Steel (X) announces a $300 million stock repurchase program and increases its quarterly dividend to $0.05 per share; Q3 adjusted EPS $5.36 tops consensus $4.85; Q3 revs $5.96B vs. est. $5.79B

 

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Apple Inc. (AAPL) shares fall -5%; Q4 revs $83.36B vs. est. $84.69B; EPS in-line at $1.24; Apple missed expectations in two key categories. Apple said Q2 iPhone sales were $38.9 billion, short of estimates of $41.5 billion, accessories segment, which contains fast-growing categories like its AirPods wireless headphones, came in at $8.8 billion, half a billion dollars lower than analyst expectations of $9.3 billion; Sales for iPads and Macs were $8.3 billion and $9.2 billion, compared with analyst estimates of $7.2 billion and $9.2 billion respectively

·     A 10 networks (ATEN) 3Q adj EPS $0.17 vs est. $0.14 on revs $65.4Mm vs est. $62.5Mm; guides 4Q revs about +10% vs est. +6.5%; says board authorized new $100Mm share repurchase program

·     Atlassian Corporation Plc (TEAM) Q1 EPS $0.46 vs est. $0.40 on revenue $614M vs est. $582.3M; sees Q2 EPS 35c-38c vs est. 44c on revenue $630M-$645M vs est. $621.8M

·     Cohu Inc. (COHU) 3Q EPS $0.48 vs est. $0.69 on revs $225.1Mm vs est. $228Mm; guides 4Q sales $182-195Mm vs est. $203.8Mm; authorized $70Mm share repurchase program

·     MicroStrategy (MSTR) Q3 adj EPS $1.88 vs est. $1.25 on revenue $128M vs est. $127.5M; added nearly 9,000 Bitcoin in the quarter bringing its total holdings to over 114,000 Bitcoin with a carrying value over $2.4B

·     Monolithic Power Systems, Inc (MPWR) 3Q EPS $1.44 vs. est. $2.00 on revs $323.5Mm vs. est. $316M; sees Q4 revs $314M-$326M vs. est. $306.62M; sees Q4 GAAP gross margin between 56.0% and 56.6%

·     National Instruments (NATI) 3Q adj EPS $0.42 vs est. $0.18 on revs $367Mm vs est. $374Mm; guides 4Q adj EPS $0.47-0.61 vs est. $0.34, sees 4Q revs $385-425Mm vs est. $409Mm

·     Power Integrations (POWI) Q3 adj EPS $0.84 vs est. $0.78 on revenue $176.8M vs est. $175.1M; raised dividend to $0.15 from $0.13, added $50M to buyback authorization for new total of $105M; sees Q4 revs $65M-$75M (est. $70.5M)

·     SPS Commerce (SPSC) 3Q adj EPS $0.47 vs est. $0.42 on revs $97.9Mm vs est. $97.4Mm; guides 4Q revs $99.9-100.5Mm vs est. $100Mm, sees 4Q adj EPS $0.41-0.42 vs est. $0.41; guides FY revs $382.4-383Mm vs est. $382Mm, sees FY adj EPS $1.76-1.77 vs est. $1.72

·     SS&C Technologies (SSNC) 3Q adj EPS $1.32 vs est. $1.19 on revs $1.264B vs est. $1.232B; guides 4Q adj EPS $1.17-1.25 vs est. $1.20, sees 4Q revs $1.225-1.275B vs est. $1.251B; guides FY CAPEX 2.6-3.0% of revs

·     Udemy (UDMY) 14.5M share IPO priced at $29.00

·     Verisign (VRSN) 3Q EPS $1.40 vs est. $1.37 on revs $334Mm vs est. $332Mm

·     Vocera Comm (VCRA) 3Q EPS $0.06 on revs $63.6Mm; deferred revs & backlog was $252.7Mm; guides FY revs $226-230Mm vs est. $228.9Mm

·     Western Digital (WDC) 1Q adj EPS $2.49 vs est. $2.45 on revs $5.1B vs est. $5.05B; guides 2Q adj EPS $1.95-2.25 vs est. $2.67, sees 2Q revs $4.7-4.9B vs est. $5.26B

·     Wrap Technologies (WRAP) 3Q EPS ($0.15) vs est. ($0.16) on revs $1.8Mm vs est. $2.35Mm

·     Zendesk (ZEN) Q3 adj EPS $0.17, in-line with ests; Q3 revs $347M vs. est. $335.1M; entered into a definitive agreement under which Zendesk will acquire Momentive, including its iconic SurveyMonkey platform; raises FY21 revenue view to $1.329B-$1.335 from $1.31B-$1.318B